Why is the market not afraid of Trump's pressure on Powell recently? Around April 20, Trump threatened to fire Powell, and the market was killed for the second time. In late June, Trump began to pressure Powell to cut interest rates. The market was not panic, but was excited. In addition to a more stable market mentality, there is also a deeper reason in my personal understanding: the dismissal of Powell actually challenged the independence status of the Federal Reserve granted by US law (challenging the constitutional system), and now whether it is calling on Powell or pushing the Federal Reserve board to jump out of the water and support interest rate cuts, or to determine the next Federal Reserve chairman in advance, it is a political game within the framework of constitutional law, which is understandable. As long as Trump no longer tries to impact the U.S. constitutional system or change the constitution, the market subconsciously believes that the U.S. system and mechanism are still in place and that it has the ability to self correct, then it is far from a state of ritual collapse and euphoria. I think there is a very important change in Trump that has been ignored by the market. That is, the Canadian and Australian elections at the end of April, and the right wings of Canada and Australia were completely defeated. At that time, I talked about https://((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/1919390271269150907? S=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A, which sounded an alarm for Trump, and the Republican Party may also be elected in the future election. Later, we saw that Trump rarely tried to impact the constitutional system of the United States: 1) Immediately deny the existence of a successor candidate for the third term of 28 years; 2) At the end of May, the International Trade Court of the United States ruled that Trump's tariff policy was illegal. Although Trump was angry, he waited until the Federal Court of Appeal rejected the ruling of the International Trade Court before continuing to act; 3) Even the expulsion of illegal immigrants has won the lawsuit in the Supreme Court; 4) Including actions such as Powell no longer threatening to dismiss, only calling for interest rate cuts, and appointing the next chairman to influence market expectations; In other words, Trump began to learn to use rules to conduct reasonable political games under the constitutional framework. Do you remember when Bernanke saw the greed of Wall Street in 2008? Https://((x.com))/qinba frank/status/1869363306500374794? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A， As long as the greed of the market and the institutional mechanisms of the United States remain, the market believes that capitalism still has a way out. Back to Trump's appointment of the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, https://((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/1938049369775002039? S=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A talked about Trump's intention: by announcing his successor in advance, let the "shadow chairman" begin to influence market expectations and monetary policy trend before the end of Powell's term of office. Previously, it was discussed that as Powell's term shortens, the shadow chairman's say will become increasingly significant. My expectation is that as time goes on, when Powell's term is only half a year or even shorter, the power of the "shadow Fed chairman" will become increasingly powerful, and at this point, the market may have to care about what Powell says.