Rocky
Rocky|Jul 07, 2025 16:52
Recently, the performance of global banking stocks has been really strong, even veteran investors like me are a bit impressed. Let's talk about the overall trend first - starting from the end of 2022, global banking stocks have been rising all the way, and by 2025, this upward trend has not stopped, but the gap between it and the overall market index has been widening. You can imagine it as: other stocks are walking, while bank stocks have already ridden a motorcycle. 🔍 Refer to Figure 1: Black is the global banking stock index; Blue is from the United States; Green Japan; Purple Europe; Red is Hong Kong; Finally, orange represents the overall global stock market index. Basically, global banks outperform the market. What does this mean? This wave of banks is not just a rebound, but a systemic strong market trend. Why is it rising so sharply? one ️⃣ The interest rate environment has changed. Since the 2020s, the United States, Japan, and Europe have all been raising interest rates. As interest rates rise, the bank's "interest margin income" increases (in simple terms, the difference between loan interest and deposit interest is greater, and the bank earns more). Profit naturally increases, and the stock price follows suit. two ️⃣ Even in places with low interest rates, such as A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, bank stocks have not fallen, but are being bought more and more, with insurance funds and public funds buying behind them. What does this mean? It indicates that everyone wants stable, dividend paying, and risk resistant assets. three ️⃣ The world is lacking growth points, and funds are beginning to lean towards a conservative strategy of "high dividends". In the absence of significant economic growth and the high level of AI speculation, what investors care most about has become a word - dividends. I will invest in whoever can provide me with cash flow. Speaking of American stock banks: 🔺 Bank of America stocks have risen for 9 consecutive days, equaling the record of consecutive gains in the 1990s. The reason is very direct: the Federal Reserve recently announced that it will relax the capital constraints of banks (eSLR). This is like telling the market that big banks will have more 'money to spend' - what is the result? Everyone guessed that they would either repurchase stocks or increase dividends. Investors rushed into bank stocks upon hearing this news. 🔺 Bank stocks have increased their quarterly dividend payouts, especially large banks. The actions of hedge funds last week were also evident: for the first time in the past decade, they bought bank stocks so quickly. As shown in Figure 2. In the current environment of high global interest rates, mediocre growth, and risk aversion, bank stocks have instead become a safe haven. They are not as rapidly growing as technology stocks, nor as fragile as small cap stocks. They are stable, dividend paying, and have cheap valuations - these are the "top students" in asset shortages. I have added a lot of American banks to my current portfolio, especially large banks with high dividend yields and stable balance sheets. It's not about doubling down, but about seizing a medium to long-term source of high certainty cash flow. Simply put, don't expect to become rich overnight through bank stocks, but relying on them for retirement is reliable. If you don't have Futu Securities or Tiger, then there are also two US bank stocks in the RWA US stock tokenization platform Mystonks, namely JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America. in compliance with 👇 Figure 3. US stock tokenization participation link: https://mystonks.org/?code=Vu2v44
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