Depth: ETH's rise is weak, what is the momentum? 》 Whales and institutions determine the upper limit of the rise, and their optional allocation targets span across the stock market and cryptocurrency circle. Therefore, from the perspective of Whales, we are not optimistic about the allocation value of ETH. Note: This is not about whether it will rise or not, it's just about discussing the attractiveness of the configuration and asking God for market predictions - just like any junk imitation can rise at any time, but you and I may not buy because we think BTC is better, the same principle applies. Having understood this premise, let's investigate the attractiveness of this ETH: 1、 Horizontal valuation The so-called configuration is that institutions and giant whales do not need any target of Soho. Let's list some targets that may have a big foam and compare them. ETH 300 billion US dollars AMD 224.6 billion (Nvidia competitor in the AI era) Pinduoduo 140 billion XAI $120 billion (including Musk's Xai and Twitter) Bubble Mart $44 billion Coin related Robinhood $90 billion (18 million users) Coinbase 90 billion (Compliance Office) CRCL 39 billion (Pioneer of US compliant stablecoin strategy) Hype 1.3 billion (Unlimited repurchase+high income+high growth, FDV of 4 billion) HSK 87 million (Eastern Compliance Institute+stablecoin+OTC+global expansion, FDV6 billion) WLFI 10 billion off exchange price The on chain ecological strategy token issued by the Trump family covers 9 billion yuan of stablecoins such as USD1 and WLD AI identity authentication and recognition Valuation cannot be simply judged by market value. For most of the benchmark scenarios mentioned above, they are relatively clear, so we will not go into them one by one. Instead, we will focus on the ETH scenario. 2、 There is no demand for ETH, and the upward momentum is insufficient In the cited research report, ETH is understood as oil, but the main argument is that the growth of stablecoins, DEFI, and RWA will lead to an increase in ETH pricing. But this kind of connection mainly relies on imagination, and in reality, the connection is clearly insufficient. In terms of oil, with the industrial boom, the demand for oil is endless, and like gold, it has become a hard currency - unlike gold, there is a great demand for oil. ETH, on the other hand, faces a completely different dilemma, whether it's stablecoins defi、rwa， It is obvious that there is no actual or significant demand for ETH, but let's analyze it: 1. The demand for ETH in stablecoin expansion Firstly, the more stablecoins develop, the less demand there will be for the ETH main chain, because from the user side, they ultimately do not need to pay attention to any chain, and various applications will find ways to improve speed and reduce fees to zero. Therefore, stablecoins will eventually exist on various high-speed chains, connecting users' life scenarios. Stablecoins existing on the main chain mainly pursue secure storage rather than transactions, and their amounts may be large, but trading and transfer activities will be minimal. Secondly, from the current perspective. Both USDT and USDG are developing their own proprietary chains as high-speed carrier networks for stablecoins, which is a trend. Some are completely rebooting the stove, while others are developing proprietary chains based on ETH's L2 technology. 2. RWA and Defi These two items involve heavy assets, and it is expected that the main chain will attract more resources, but they are both low-frequency. Especially now, whether it is RWA or DeFI, they involve lending and other scenarios, which are the lowest frequency, and the demand for burning, destroying or using ETH is very low. Looking back at several rounds of ETH surges, namely ICO, NFT, and DeFi, all settled in ETH, resulting in a short-term surge in demand for ETH - regardless of the price, if you don't have ETH and want to trade NFTs, you need ETH. And in the future, such scenes will be difficult to reproduce. When playing meme, people have already started using sol, while other innovations like NFT and DeFi are difficult to reproduce - I always feel that they should have appeared earlier. Of course, if there is a similar big innovation, all the inferences in this article will be overturned because there will be significant demand in the short term, but it does not affect the reference price of this article - if the big innovation comes out, just buy it, and then return to the anchor coordinates of this article after speculation. 3. The consensus of ETH leads to a space for price increase Currently, there is an implicit logic that suggests the growth of RWA, DeFI, and stablecoins will lead to an increase in ETH consensus, which in turn will result in an increase in price. This price increase will lead institutions to use RWA as collateral, and the demand for collateral will further increase prices. This is somewhat similar to the 'empty argument', where if one steps on the right foot with the left foot, the argument becomes invalid - for example, as collateral, BTC is already invincible. 3、 Other The security of ETH is still the strongest outside of BTC in the industry, but there is some ambiguity in pricing for security. However, you can still refer to the first part of this article. You are a whale, you have money, you need to allocate assets, and you may also consider good and spacious assets, so the answer is slightly clearer. In addition, ETH faces significant competition within the cryptocurrency community and between different chains. For example, chains such as Sol, Base, ARB, and even BSC have been tested by a long enough time and a large number of users and transactions. People no longer care about their decentralization level. Most of what ETH can do, they can do - the parts that cannot be done are priced at over 200 billion US dollars and are difficult to be widely overvalued. 4、 The Rise of ETH The rise of ETH is mainly discussed in terms of demand and intrinsic value, but there is also a variable in the rise of the cryptocurrency circle, which is the market makers. We can see on some meme coins that although the consensus is worse, the result is a more aggressive and stronger rise, such as the AI era's goat, although it is Dragon One. As a result, Yezhuang (the institution) picked up a zeroed Dragon Er and collected enough chips to win over the people. For example, after ORDI got up, a bunch of big institutions and big shots immediately started sats, and there were many more later. In the meme, there haven't been many opportunities in the past six months. The prophecies of some big shots are intertwined with conspiracies, the lack of evidence, and hidden positions, making everything boring. At present, there are not many retail investors willing to buy ETH, and if institutions still have a large number of tokens they want to sell, it will be very difficult to build momentum without increasing trading volume. If you come up with 10 billion, using 500 million as capital to build a Galapan may have a price, pulling and selling at the same time. The game between Xianxin Capital and trapped capital. The cryptocurrency industry is experiencing unprecedented changes, and ETH may be the last tremor of the old era.