Sina 🗝️⚡ 21st Capital
Sina 🗝️⚡ 21st Capital|Jul 02, 2025 13:24
This week's Bitcoin Intelligence report was focused on dissecting the trifecta of stimulus, the full-stack stimulus, that is heading our way. Introduction The liquidity train is leaving the station. Trump wants 1% rates, the Treasury is floating stealth QE, and Congress is preparing historic fiscal expansion. At the same time, onchain data shows Bitcoin grinding higher despite steady sell pressure, a sign of deep resilience. The macro, monetary, and market forces are aligning—and when they do, the move is never small. Let’s first review the broader picture. Over the past 17 issues of the Bitcoin Intelligence Report, we have walked through four distinct phases in market structure: V-Shaped Market: Early in the year, we called for a Tariff-induced crash followed by a sharp recovery. That scenario played out with Bitcoin falling from 105K to 75K due to tariff uncertainty, then violently rebounding to 111K. Post-Recovery Weakness Due to Lagging Macro: The recovery happened faster than anticipated, outpacing the arrival of key fundamental supports. We flagged this as unsustainable and called for a period of weakness. Bitcoin pulled back below 100K, in line with that expectation. Seller Exhaustion and Rebound: As momentum faded, we highlighted signs of seller exhaustion. A rebound followed, lifting Bitcoin back to 108K. Macro Fundamentals Arriving: We are now entering a new phase. Macro fundamentals, fiscal expansion, dovish shifts, and political pressure on the Fed, are beginning to show up in force. In this issue, we break down why the market may be nearing a melt-up phase. Trump is aggressively pushing for 1% interest rates, threatening Powell’s position and reshaping expectations for monetary policy. At the same time, fiscal stimulus is accelerating through the “Big Beautiful Bill,” and the Treasury may adopt extreme measures to suppress rates. A stablecoin bill could create new structural demand for Treasuries, driving rates lower and pushing capital into risk assets. All of this is happening while Bitcoin and equities sit near all-time highs, yet liquidity expansion is just getting started. The conditions for a historic melt-up are building. Read the rest by subscribing to the BI platform. Link in my bio.
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