⚡ The latest forecast summary of Wall Street's interest rate cuts has been released—— If we take the median: starting from September, a 50bps interest rate cut for the whole year has basically become a moderate dovish consensus among institutions. The reason for Goldman Sachs to lower its forecast this round is also quite subtle: they believe that the inflationary impact caused by tariffs is one-time, while longer-term deflationary forces (such as supply chain repair and real estate correction) are still slowly taking effect. The current market is like a stretched bow - everyone knows the arrow is going to be shot, but no one knows which morning it will be shot. It's not a vague direction, but rather too clear. Everyone knows what will happen next, so no one dares to move first. Funds dare not chase after, and the main force is not in a hurry. My current understanding and judgment have three points. Can you share them—— one ⃣ Interest rate cuts are no longer a suspense, the suspense is whether the market pricing dares to lead the way The current market is a typical state of 'expected but not fulfilled'. Emotionally superior is landing, Strategy is the turning point. The market is in a gap period between expectations and pricing, implying a structure where the expectation of interest rate cuts has been half digested. Therefore, the market seems to be hanging in mid air and unable to move because everyone is waiting. What are you waiting for? I'm definitely waiting for a turning point signal that can completely penetrate the market, whether it's 25bps or 50bps. two ⃣ What is the signal: is the pricing based on technical interest rate cuts or cyclical easing? The former is a technical correction, while the latter is the true market trend that can drive asset premium revaluation. If in the next two to three months, there are more signs pointing to the Federal Reserve entering a new round of cyclical easing, that will be the real time point worth a heavy increase in holdings. Just like after the first interest rate cut in July 2019, the US stock market BTC、 As soon as gold takes off, no one has time to think because the funds have already been arranged in advance, just wait for the harvest. It's important to understand that the market doesn't only rise after interest rate cuts, but only when the market dares to price more interest rate cuts in the future, does the market truly have imagination. three ⃣ Don't just focus on the interest rate cut itself, take a closer look at whether there are new outlets for liquidity The truly powerful signal is the moment when strong interest rate cuts and strong asset appreciation resonate. For example, in my opinion, the weakening trend of DXY and the weakening of US bond yields are the earliest reaction windows. In addition, the signal that Kraken, Bybit, and Robinhood have simultaneously launched cryptocurrency and stock trading platforms is also crucial, indicating an important point: The liquidity released by interest rate cuts has more escape channels, no longer limited to banks and securities firms, and can flow directly through the asset market along the on chain infrastructure. So now my personal strategy is: Don't focus on candlesticks, focus on turning signals: Look more at bond markets and US dollar liquidity indicators to see if there is an early resonance between BTC/ETH and the Nasdaq/gold. Maintain position flexibility and select the asset structure to be added in advance: cash flow assets+new liquidity track. Continuously observe the growth of non US dollar paths on the chain, such as RWA projects, stablecoin chain usage increases, and the entry of non US KYC funds. The market is often most depressed during the peak of interest rates, but in the early stages of the easing cycle, it is actually the biggest window of explosion. The two most common mistakes made by retail investors at this stage are: 1. Just start preparing to get on the car when the boots land. 2. After repeated trial and error, the bullet was fired, and the day when there was a real market trend was no longer in the car.