GOLDMAN NOW SEES FIRST FED CUT IN SEPTEMBER Goldman’s Hatzius has moved his Fed cut forecast to September from December, citing smaller-than-expected tariff impacts and stronger disinflation. While the job market remains healthy, it’s getting harder to find jobs, posing downside risks to payrolls. Goldman sees a slightly above 50% chance of a September cut, followed by cuts in October and December, similar to 2019’s pattern. The firm expects two more cuts in 2026 and lowers its terminal rate forecast to 3–3.25% from 3.5–3.75%. A July cut is not expected unless jobs data this week is much weaker than forecast.