JPMorgan Chase: The real reason behind the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cut may not be favorable for good US stocks

According to BlockBeats, on June 30th, the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates were increasing. However, the London strategy team of JPMorgan Chase stated that the real reason behind the rate cut may not be favorable for the stock market, and may even become a "wrong type of easing", triggering a chain reaction in the market. Morgan Stanley strategist Mislav Matejka pointed out that the market has digested an additional 18 basis points of interest rate cut expectations in the past few weeks, but the key lies in the driving factors behind the rate cut. They proposed three possible scenarios for interest rate cuts: The first scenario is that the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates due to a significant decrease in economic activity. The second scenario, which is also the best "blonde girl" prospect, is that economic growth remains resilient but inflation is controlled, and this scenario will not put pressure on consumer purchasing power. The third scenario is that even if there is some inflationary pressure, the Federal Reserve chooses to cut interest rates, which may be done against the backdrop of the US government pushing for rate cuts. Morgan Stanley strategists predict that the future will be a combination of the first and third scenarios - where economic activity slows down but inflation rebounds. Strategists say, 'If this outlook becomes a reality, we believe investors will be disappointed.' They point out that since 1980, the US dollar has typically weakened before interest rate cuts and continued to decline after them. The bond yield also decreased accordingly. Morgan Stanley's strategists say they expect the US dollar to hit a new low in most cases, and US bond yields will continue to decline. (Golden Ten)