飞凡
飞凡|Jun 30, 2025 03:26
Elaborate on Trump's Big and Beautiful Act First, let me briefly explain what the content of the bill includes 1. Taxation Make the previous round of individual and corporate tax reductions permanent, and add a clause for "tax-free tips and overtime pay" Raise the state/local tax (SALT) deduction limit from $10000 to $40000 Abolish the surtax known as the 'revenge tax' by Wall Street Restore 30% interest deduction on enterprise EBITDA Suspend the "double tax rebate" loophole for mid to low-end tobacco products within five years. 2. Expenditure An additional $150 billion will be allocated for national defense Border security costs 70 billion US dollars at once, plus an annual increase in repatriation quotas Sell 1.2 million acres of federal land to raise funds Medical sector tightens Medicaid/SNAP eligibility, but adds $25 billion in special support for rural hospitals 3. Energy and Climate Systematically revoke renewable energy tax credits from the previous government and accelerate fossil fuel production permits The Joint Taxation Committee of Congress estimates that there will be a reduction of approximately $4.5 trillion in revenue over the next decade, while conservative think tanks estimate a net increase in debt of $3.8 trillion to $4.0 trillion. The White House claims that through growth and land revenue, it can reverse the deficit by $1.4 trillion during the same period. How are the reactions from various sectors? The White House and Republican leadership will undoubtedly push for its passage with all their might, explaining it as the largest combination of tax cuts and reindustrialization in history, Tax breaks help businesses and families withstand pressure, defense and border spending are signs of restoring America's tough stance, and rural healthcare and SALT deductions are pleasing specific ticket holders, But fundamentally, it is still demonstrating Trump's return to power and building momentum for the 2026 midterm elections. There are not many opinions within the party, and the opposition's position is mainly that the bill violates the principles of small government and low spending, and is unwilling to take the blame for the worsening of the fiscal deficit. In addition, Wall Street's attitude has shifted from vigilance to support, which is related to the Treasury Department's abandonment of the "revenge tax". Initially, President Trump planned to impose heavy taxes on stock repurchases, but mostly considered the urgent need for financial asset expansion and stock market prosperity in the current US society, so he turned to raising the SALT deduction limit to $40000 (or increasing it year by year). Due to their own work, many executives/traders/high net worth clients on Wall Street are in NY/NJ, and the increase in SALT deduction limits is something that high-income states (such as NY/NJ/CA) clients would like to see, A higher deduction limit=a reduction in individual federal tax burden, equivalent to an increase in investable funds in the hands of practitioners (from $10000 to $40000). The main opponents are technology innovators, Democrats, and progressive groups. Among them, Musk believes that the Big and Beautiful Act is a "negation of the future" that suppresses emerging industries such as electric vehicles and solar energy. Of course, this is mainly because the bill will cause technology companies such as Tesla to lose tax incentives or be marginalized. On the other hand, the reasons for opposition from the Democratic Party are more direct. The Big and American bill is clearly aimed at reducing taxes for the rich and targeting the poor, reducing eligibility for federal medical subsidies and SNAP food stamps, and abolishing green energy tax incentives, which have had a negative impact on social security. The impact of the bill on the short-term macroeconomic situation mainly includes several aspects Firstly, around 2026, there will definitely be a slight increase in personal disposable income in the United States, and there will also be a slight rebound in after tax profits for businesses. And more importantly, after the implementation of the Daye America Act, the US government will use a more radical way to increase borrowing in the coming years. The tax reduction+spending increase in the act will make the US finance spend about 3 to 4 trillion dollars in the next ten years. Since the government has no ready money, it needs to issue bonds to finance, that is, to issue new US treasury bond. If the average maturity of US bonds remains 70 months, the market needs to digest nearly 20 billion dollars of newly issued treasury bond every day. If the supply of debt increases significantly, but the demand does not increase at the same time, then the long-term interest rate can only be raised to attract buyers, and the stable interest rate is the biggest enemy of all risky assets. The pressure on the stock market and the crypto market in the medium and long term will certainly not be less. Of course, the biggest problem for the American people is that the interest rate of housing loans, car loans and credit cards will increase simultaneously, which is a little disguised Of course, OBBB is definitely not that easy to implement, and the greater probability is to continue to slim down and then cut off some redundant clauses. For traditional investors, the main hedge against OBBB is energy and military stocks, not Bitcoin. Pure coin players are likely to have to deal with the continuous inflationary pressure and policy torment in the future.
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