
Phyrex|Jun 27, 2025 17:12
Today, CRCL fell below $200, and I just want to talk about it. Yesterday, I had a conversation with @ YeruiZhang Rui Shen about the topic of CRCL. I really like the way Rui Shen calculates the valuation of CRCL. Unlike many of our friends, Rui Shen's statement is that the market value of CRCL can refer to the decline in VIAS and MSTERCARD.
I compared the trends of V and MA, which are highly overlapping. After all, their businesses are also highly consistent. When CRCL came out, both were impacted and fell. The main reason for the decline is that the market expects CRCL to seize the space of both in the payment market.
Of course, this is just an expectation. The market still prefers expectations, but if viewed in this way, the market will gradually react. For the C-end, CRCL still has a long way to go. In developed countries, it is very difficult to enter the current payment market, and it is difficult to change user habits. Not to mention, although CRCL's profits look good, the payment channel fees are higher.
Not to mention, if comprehensive interest rate cuts begin in 2026, CRCL's revenue will inevitably be hit. Maintaining the current 30% is already good. The single revenue structure is the main problem with compliant stablecoins, which may also be why Tether does not want to comply with regulations in the United States, because compliant stablecoins cannot be used as "banks".
That is to say, high-yield projects such as mortgage loans cannot be done, and profits can only be obtained through US bonds. If the interest rate of US bonds returns to 0.25% or 0.5% in 2028, CRCL's profits will be very difficult, let alone CRCL having to pay channel fees to Binance and Coinbase. So, is the remaining money enough to support CRCL in exploring new markets.
Of course, financing is not a problem. The listing itself is for financing, but it is uncertain whether the money raised can help CRCL open up the payment market and get a share of it, or even whether it may be subject to joint restrictions by VISA and MASTER.
There is no problem benchmarking PayPal when developing imagination, but PayPal also has its own stablecoin, PAUSD, Paypel is also a beneficiary of this stablecoin bill, and in terms of payment and cross-border fields, as well as business areas, it cannot keep up with CRCL.
So from a trend perspective, if Rui Shen's statement holds true, then as long as the positive news of VISA and MASTER leads to an increase, it may be a decline in CRCL.
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