
Phyrex|Jun 27, 2025 13:34
One accidentally overslept. Today, the core PCE data for May in the United States was released, which has increased compared to the previous value. Core PCE is the data that the Federal Reserve is most concerned about, and the inflation rate of 2% mentioned by the Federal Reserve refers to core PCE. Therefore, an increase in this data represents a departure from the Federal Reserve's expectations.
From the perspective of detailed data, the monthly rate of core PCE has also increased, and the annual rate of overall PCE has also increased. There is indeed a trend of rising inflation in the United States, but personal spending is actually decreasing, and it is still deflationary.
This indicates that on the one hand, inflation in the United States is rising, and on the other hand, investors' willingness to consume is decreasing. My personal feeling is that consumer willingness to grab tariffs increased in April, but returned to normal in May. Overall, this should be the case.
Overall, this inflation data is not friendly. The current rising inflation is mainly due to housing, some goods, and second-hand cars. Overall, tariffs have had a certain impact, and wage levels are also decreasing, which is not a good signal for the market. But it should not affect the Fed's interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter.
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