
Pai X|Jun 26, 2025 08:25
Is reversing a chart in a bear market your own bull market?
This idea is too presumptuous
In the past, this was also my ignorance
The reason why a bear market is called a bear market is that, in addition to the basic characteristic of a unilateral downward trend, funding rates usually continue to remain in a negative rate state
In the one-sided downward trend of the market, short selling funds and bearish sentiment are high, and naturally short sellers have to pay higher capital fees. In addition, many people may not know about the capital fees, and in some cases, the exchange can customize and adjust them
Furthermore, in a bear market, the liquidity of the entire market will significantly decrease. At this time, the market often experiences short-term huge volatility due to some minor events
Moreover, in bear markets, most exchanges will increase the margin rate for short selling funds, and some may indirectly increase the margin rate by raising the funding rate
In the market driven by human nature, most people are more willing to look up rather than down. Trading is a game between funds, and behind the funds are "people". Don't challenge human nature, which is also one of the reasons why bear markets often rebound violently
The lower limit of short selling is zero, and the upper limit is infinite, which means that the risk of short selling and liquidation is always greater than long selling
In summary, the cost and risk of short selling are huge compared to long selling, which further increases the risk for a one-sided bullish trend
The essence of a bear market is that it is difficult to make money, both long and short
Conclusion: Both are unilateral trends and follow the trend, but the risk and cost of short selling are always greater than long selling
That's why mature traders tend to avoid short selling
It's not because of how much faith you have in the market, but because you can recognize the risk and cost measurement of the market, which cannot be sustained by your own abilities. If you can't make money even in a bull market, why do you have to rely on a bear market?
In a market environment where there is a high probability of making money, you cannot make money. When the market environment is declining, how can you make money?
Short selling is certainly possible, but it is necessary to improve risk control mechanisms and further reduce the frequency of opening orders. After all, the difficulty of trading in bear markets is epic for both long and short sides, let alone short selling in bull markets
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