K33: Bitcoin spot ETF fund flow is highly correlated with Bitcoin price, and the impact of financial reserve companies tends to be neutral

On June 25th, according to The Block, digital asset brokerage and research firm K33 stated that there is a high correlation between the inflow of funds and price returns in Bitcoin ETFs, which is in stark contrast to some companies that include Bitcoin in their financial reserves, whose purchasing behavior often has a neutral impact on the market. Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, pointed out in a report on Tuesday that some analysts are beginning to question whether ETF fund flows can still have an impact on prices. But the latest data shows that the price of Bitcoin is still closely related to ETF inflows, with an R ² value of up to 0.80, explaining about 80% of the volatility in Bitcoin returns over the past 30 days. In contrast, the impact of Bitcoin's fiscal reserve company on prices is more complex. Lunde pointed out that the latest data shows a weak correlation between companies' purchases of Bitcoin and market returns. Although companies like Strategy still purchase Bitcoin directly from the market through debt or equity financing, which has an impact on market demand, many new entrants have taken different approaches. In the past three months alone, over 50 new fiscal reserve projects have been launched, many of which are obtained through "in kind share swaps" with large holders of Bitcoin. For example, Twenty One, supported by SoftBank, established its position of 37230 BTC through share swaps with Tether and Bitfinex. This "equivalent exchange" structure will hardly generate new net buying demand in the Bitcoin market, and may even divert direct purchasing funds that could have entered the market.