Tell me about two things that have affected the market in the past day. The first one is to cease fire in Iraq. Suddenly, there was a ceasefire between the two, although they did not abide by the agreement and fired more missiles, they still stopped. Just like the joke I posted yesterday, several major countries and markets around the world feel like they have won. The ceasefire has temporarily cooled down oil prices and risk aversion, and global capital markets are rising. After a battle, it seems to be beneficial for the world, so crypto prices have fallen sharply. However, in the medium to long term, the chaos in the Middle East may not have ended. Has the Iranian nuclear issue really been resolved? This morning, CNN reported that someone revealed that the US strike only delayed Iran's nuclear program for a few months and did not completely destroy it. Kawako cursed CNN once, saying they were slandering the most successful military operation in history. I can't figure out whether it's true or false. Iran definitely won't say anything anyway. If it really hadn't been bombed, the outside world would have thought it had exploded, and Iran would have been even happier. Israel is the most panicked. The day after the Americans bombed, Israel sent planes to bomb again, probably to see if it had been destroyed on the ground. But it probably won't have much effect, it's definitely not noticeable. Observing the nuclear radiation situation more often may be more reliable. If there is no real destruction, I don't know if the two families will resume fighting after a period of renovation in a few months. Or perhaps these two companies are currently preparing for repairs and are ready to clash again at any time, which could lead to another attack on the accounts of cryptocurrency enthusiasts. But there's no need to be too afraid, even if these two conflict, they will shoot missiles at each other, and it's unlikely that there will be a close combat on land. This form of conflict actually has less impact on the external environment. Once the panic subsides, it returns to normal. A few days ago, the cryptocurrency market plummeted, and many people said that it may be hopeless. Even if there is another conflict, there is no need to be so pessimistic. The second thing is Powell's congressional hearing this time. On the surface, it was a routine report, but in reality, it was a steel wire walking through a pile of gunpowder barrels. Powell's core consists of three sentences: The first is to cut interest rates. It's not urgent now. The economic data is okay, employment is stable and growth has not collapsed. Although inflation has dropped from a high level, it is still far from the 2% target. Plus, Trump's tariffs may push up prices, so there has been no interest rate cut recently. Secondly, whether to lower interest rates or not? When will it decrease? Take a look at the inflation and employment data for the next few months. If inflation unexpectedly falls or the unemployment rate suddenly surges, it may be necessary to take action in advance; If prices rise again, then keep waiting. Thirdly, don't use the president to pressure me. Trump curses every day and demands a sharp interest rate cut, publicly pressuring at least 17 times. Powell still said that the Federal Reserve doesn't listen to the President, only looks at economic data. Legally speaking, Trump cannot fire him, but there is a high probability of a replacement at the end of his term in May next year. There's nothing new, the focus is on the economic data for the next few months. I believe that there is unlikely to be a significant change in inflation, and the impact of tariffs in the coming months is unlikely to be substantial. The partial results of tax negotiations may only be available in early July, and it may take several months to reflect on inflation data. In terms of employment, there doesn't seem to be much change. I haven't paid much attention to economic data in the past few months, and the impact of data on encryption and the US stock market doesn't seem to be significant. Tariff policies and negotiation results, stablecoin bills, net inflow data of ETFs, and military conflicts seem to have a greater impact on the market. But in the coming months, the macro level may have more impact on the market, and economic data may not be as important. What is important is how these Federal Reserve Board members interpret these data, such as CPI 2.4%. They think this data is quite low and can be cut, so it can be lowered. They feel that there is still a distance from 2% and it is not suitable to cut interest rates, so it is still not advisable to do so. How to solve data is the greatest power. Last year in the second half of the year, the CPI of around 3% was not cut yet. This year, the CPI has been consistently low, but they still do not want to cut interest rates. So data is actually not that important, what's important is how to interpret it. From the perspective of market speculation on the prospect of interest rate cuts, there is a high possibility of September, but there are also many variables. The probability of a rate cut in July is only 15%, while the probability of a rate cut in September is around 70%. The internal division within the Federal Reserve is severe. Some people (such as council members Waller and Bauman) believe that inflation is controllable and call for a reduction in July. The other faction is concerned that tariffs may trigger secondary inflation and advocates waiting a little longer. Powell, as the chairman, has to balance the two factions, so his statement is vague. Anyway, pay more attention to the statements of these voting committees. The probability of interest rate cuts in the market may change at any time according to their statements. Interest rate cuts will come sooner or later, but the path is bound to be bumpy. Hold onto spot assets, avoid high leverage, and when the Federal Reserve truly turns, liquidity will push all risky assets to take off, and Bitcoin will not be absent.