In Powell's congressional hearing tonight, I personally think the most crucial thing is that he is practicing Tai Chi, but he has also set three paths for the Fed's decision-making: if inflation is not as strong as expected or if the labor market is weak, interest rates can be cut early; But if inflation and the labor market remain strong, we will cut interest rates later. It takes time to observe the inflation and labor situation for the two months of July and August. Previously, it was believed that inflation would have a one-time effect (which would not last long) in the context of waiting for tariffs to eventually fall to a level of over 10%. The biggest impact of the ceasefire in Iran these days is the weakening of the push for inflation in June due to the decline in oil prices. I personally expected September to be more likely, but I will check if the shooting is accurate later.