
Phyrex|Jun 24, 2025 08:26
Thoughts on Middle Eastern trading, this is my first time writing a review of the transaction. I kindly ask for your guidance.
The conflict in the Middle East should have come to an end. It has been said that analysis itself is for trading. At this time, I have also opened orders, of course, from Ant Group, mainly to test viewpoints. I plan to talk about losses or profits.
The first order of geopolitical conflict started on June 17th, with multiple orders hanging at $104666. However, it didn't feel very good and there was a possibility of intensifying the war. On the 19th, it was tied at 85%, with a price of $104753 at that time, which earned back the funding rate and handling fee.
The remaining 15% was intended to take a look, but in fact, I always do this. When I am unsure of the next trend, I first level my large position and leave a smaller position to continue observing. That night, it began to decline, and my long order of 0.5 BTC at $103555 was eaten up.
Every time I open a position, I start with 0.5 BTC, which can be considered a habit. However, the market situation is just like everyone knows, with the war intensifying and the market falling. My liquidation price was around $98800. On June 22nd, it was reported that the United States may participate in the war, and the price quickly fell. I balanced whether to carry the order or to stop loss, and chose the latter to stop all losses at $100567.
The loss at that time was $1800. As shown, I hung up one order at $100200 and didn't get it. Then I hung up the second order at $100700 and got it. The reason for hanging up this order was that I thought the war could end quickly if the United States entered, because Trump didn't have much time.
And then the price continued to fall. I actually accepted the price drop, but I think this position is still a bit high because the liquidation price is around $96500, and I hope the liquidation price is lower than $96000. It was flat at $100407, and I lost another $200. I continued to hang at $100200, but I didn't get it. The market is still experiencing a slight rebound, and I feel a bit uneasy.
Cancel and place a new order at 100300. After waiting for a while, the transaction was completed. This time, the order put all the money in my contract account, valued at 0.666 BTC, and continued to decline. On the 22nd, the lowest point dropped to $98115. At this time, I was already on vacation and was wondering if I should stop losses and wait for a lower price.
But I thought it was Sunday, which already had the worst liquidity and the highest panic. Only when cryptocurrencies were under pressure, the possibility of oversold would be greater. So at that time, I also tweeted and wrote about it, thinking that the weekend reaction was a bit excessive, but in fact it was not that serious.
Article: https://(x.com)/Phyrex_Ni/status/1936869174736986335
So I decided to continue resisting instead of stopping losses. I even thought about whether to transfer some money from my spot account. How did this come about? I have been telling my friends around me for three months that analysis is to assist in trading and must be linked with trading. So, I took $2000 to start the contract myself and opened the order based on my own judgment.
Some friends may know that after three months, they accumulated from $2000 to $5000, and at that time, they wanted to do experiments, which is why they opened 0.5 BTC. At that time, $2000 was exactly 0.5 Bitcoin.
The previous idea was to use a maximum limit of $2000 per month for opening orders. If a position is liquidated, it indicates that there is a problem with one's judgment and analysis, and adjustments need to be made. It is absolutely not recommended to spend an extra penny within a month. If one is wrong, they will be punished immediately.
So I'm a little hesitant about whether to move some money over because I think my judgment is correct, but this price may be a bit high to enter, but as I said myself, low prices are bought, not waited for. I'm a little hesitant, but actually I don't seem to want to stop replenishing to reduce costs.
So I sat there until 6am on the 23rd after coming out of the bar, and the CME opening price returned to above $100000. My long orders turned from losses to profits, and I thought it was not a big problem. Then at midnight on the 24th, there were voices of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to rise and the risk market to fall.
At this time, I had considered whether to take profits, but I looked at the US stock market, reviewed a lot of information related to the Strait of Hormuz, and judged that it may not be blocked. At that time, Bitcoin fell more than $100000, and I was prepared. If it continued to fall, I would replenish my position because I think if the US entered the market, it would not delay for too long.
At that time, I felt that the two most important reasons for carrying the bill were that Trump informed the United States in advance when he attacked Qatar. The second reason was that Trump told the Department of Energy to increase oil exploration in the United States to respond to the rise in oil prices. As a result, the price of dinner (midnight snack) had rebounded.
I slept until 11 noon today and woke up to see the price exceeding $105000 and the news of a ceasefire. At this point, I was still a bit confused. Immediately after, a message popped up saying that Iran had launched six more missiles after preparing for a ceasefire. I was worried that it might recur, so I balanced 80% of the orders at $104836, deducted all losses, and made a net profit of $500.
I still have 20% of the long orders on hand, and at the time of writing this tweet, the price has risen to $105200 and the profit has reached 100%. I have withdrawn all the margin to lock in the cost. As I am writing here, I saw the Israeli minister say that Iran violated the ceasefire agreement and Israel wants to retaliate against targeted strikes in Tehran. So, I closed out this 20% at around $105000.
Of course, as mentioned earlier this morning, war is not important. As long as the Strait of Hormuz is not blocked, the impact on oil prices will not be significant. I closed my position to see if there were better opportunities to enter, but entering again would probably be a small order.
At present, after closing all positions, the amount of funds has increased by 3.5 times, nearly $7500. If I enter again, it will definitely depend on the trend of oil prices and war. This time, I will be more cautious.
At the end, what I want to say is that the risk of contracts is very high, especially the higher the leverage ratio, the higher the risk, and the greater the gambling element. Every time I place an order, I am prepared to close it to zero, because I started from $2000 and I don't care how much I lost. Therefore, my mentality can be relatively good, but if the position continues to increase, even when it reaches 10% of my position, I don't know if I can be so calm.
So I don't expect this $2000 to roll to $1 million like the big shots. I just open a position of 0.5 BTC slowly every time, and the focus is still on judging the market to assist in spot trading, because spot trading has a higher tolerance rate and is more secure.
The contract is likely to be a dead end, although it is currently profitable, if it is not drawn in time, it is very likely to be lost back.
This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex
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