Regarding today's long short double explosion, many people believe that the dog market is using information to manipulate the market. I don't know if this is the case, but I am not very interested in this theory. In my opinion, @ biancoresearch's viewpoint is similar to mine, which is that the market's concern about the trend of oil prices is not only about the intensity of the war, but also depends on the market's evaluation of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. I saw a probability chart posted by him on Polymarket regarding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, which clearly indicates that the market's attitude towards closure may be one of the reasons for today's bullish and bearish double explosion. Currently, the probability is only about 30%, which is that the market believes Iran lacks actual blockade capabilities, so the expected impact on oil prices will not be significant. For me, the analysis of war is beyond my current ability, at most I can gather some information. I haven't seen any signs of a ceasefire in the short term yet, and it is likely to last for some time. During this period, anything is possible, and closely monitoring oil prices may be a good choice. After all, the oil price has dropped to $68. Of course, if you think it's Dog Market manipulating the market and cutting your contract in a targeted manner, it's not impossible. It's just that my understanding hasn't reached this level yet. The current oil price may be more affected by information, and tracking WTI may be safer. This is not something that will remain unchanged. If Iran shows signs of "actual blockade of the strait" in the future, such as laying mines or assembling ships, the probability will inevitably increase, and the market will inevitably enter another period of volatility. Looking back at the data of Bitcoin, although the price amplitude is still quite large, there are no obvious signs of panic, and the turnover rate has not been greatly amplified. We have not seen a large number of investors panic, and the most frequent turnover is still among short-term bottom buying investors. On the contrary, early investors are still keeping a wait-and-see attitude. From the supporting data, it can be seen that BTC is still maintaining its health. The price ranges of $93000 to $98000 and $105000 to $105000 are currently the most concentrated for BTC. The former is more stable, while the latter will still increase risk if there is too much accumulation. This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex