Good news, the Rampage Shanzhai Season has arrived Bad news on the US stock market Damn it, I also went to draw some money to invest in the US stock market Let's lay a foundation first and prepare for the collection on the US stock market A complete research and decision-making framework for the valuation system of the US stock market Most leeks only consider whether the P/E ratio is cheap The true valuation system lies behind it Asset PROFITABILITY Macro Variables Valuation Modelling Multidimensional Interaction in Market Gaming The following systematic and commonly used valuation analysis framework for the US stock market 👇 one ️⃣ Asset side: Business Quality evaluation of the company The premise of valuation is that the company itself is valuable. This section focuses on whether the company can weather the cycle and sustain profitability in the long term. a. Industry barriers: Do they have a moat? For example, Apple's ecological stickiness, Microsoft's enterprise lock-in effect, and Visa's network effect. b. Business models: To B (SaaS), To C (consumer electronics), and platform based (Meta/Google) have significant differences in valuation methods. c. Management Capability: Judging from their past execution ability and rational capital allocation, such as Berkshire Hathaway's Buffett and Apple's Cook, are highly representative. d. Financial stability: balance sheet quality, whether there is high cash, low debt, and whether there is the ability to weather downturns. e. ESG and compliance factors: Institutional investors have increasingly high requirements for ESG, especially buyers of pension funds and sovereign funds. 🔎 Summary: This section determines whether you are "willing to own" this company, not only for speculation, but also for trusting its future. two ️⃣ Operating end: Profitability and Growth (Earnings Power&Growth) The core variables that determine the valuation of a company are whether its profitability is strong enough and whether its growth is sustainable. a. ROE/ROIC: The higher the return on capital, the more money one can earn with the same amount of money, which is one of Buffett's most important indicators. b. Profit margin: High gross profit margin and high net profit margin often mean pricing power, such as Adobe's subscription software and NVDA's AI chips. c. Revenue and profit growth rate: Companies with sustained double-digit growth often have a much higher valuation tolerance than stable enterprises. d. Unit Economics Model: SaaS will look at LTV/CAC; Consumer e-commerce will look at ARPU and repurchase rate; These are the key to early enterprise valuation. e. Operational leverage: How much profit can increase with a 1% increase in revenue? This is a manifestation of the combination of growth and efficiency. 🔎 Summary: This section is the determinant of the pricing "ceiling". If you don't grow, you're not worth the high multiples. three ️⃣ External variables: Macro&Sector Context The market is dynamic, and companies do not grow in a vacuum. Valuation must consider macro environment, interest rates, policies, and cycles. a. Interest rate impact: the most critical parameter in the discount model. The higher the interest rate, the lower the valuation of high growth stocks. In the past two years, the valuation of technology stocks has been driven by interest rates. b. Economic cycle: cyclical stocks (such as energy and industry) depend on which stage they are in; Defense stocks (such as consumer goods and pharmaceuticals) have stronger cyclical attributes. c. Industry lifecycle: For example, when AI is just starting out, its valuation can be overdrawn by 10 years; As traditional retail enters a period of decline, it must be discounted. d. Regulatory environment: Technology giants, financial platforms, Chinese concept stocks, etc. are all limited by policy risks, and their valuations have a "policy discount". e. Exchange rate factors: Global revenue companies such as Meta, Apple, and Nike are directly affected by the fluctuation of the US dollar in their financial reports. 🔎 Summary: You are not doing DCF in a vacuum, macro anchoring, and determining whether there is logical support for valuation. four ️⃣ Valuation Methods: Pricing and Discounting (Valuation Techniques) The core of valuation is pricing - whether the buying price reflects future cash flows and risks. a. Relative valuation method (Multiples) P/E: Suitable for profitable and stable enterprises, it needs to be combined with historical intervals and industry comparisons. EV/EBITDA: Suitable for heavy capital enterprises, filtering out differences in capital structure. P/S: Commonly used for loss making but rapidly growing enterprises (SaaS, AI), caution should be exercised when exceeding 20 times. PEG: Combining P/E with growth rate can measure the "reasonableness of valuation". b. Absolute Valuation Method (DCF/DDM) DCF: Discounting future free cash flows. Suitable for mature enterprises, but highly sensitive to assumptions. DDM: Suitable for high dividend, stable growth companies (such as utilities, traditional blue chips). Key variables: discount rate (WACC), growth rate (g), FCF forecast. c. Special valuation method SaaS、 Valuation of platform company: TAM x market share x profit margin x EV/S multiple estimated future space AI based enterprise valuation: In the early stages, "model deduction" and "narrative driven" can be used in conjunction with EV/S pricing 🔎 Summary: Valuation models are not necessarily more complex, but rather adapted to the company's stage, business logic, and market expectations. five ️⃣ Market Feedback Loop: Verification of Transaction Dimensions Valuation is not a closed door process, it ultimately depends on market consensus and trading behavior. a. Capital flow: Active funds ETF、 The changes in key holdings such as Northbound Funds and Bank of America/ARK can determine whether the valuation has been recognized by buyers. b. Sell side consensus expectation: Is analyst EPS expectation revised upwards? Is the rating upgraded centrally? Reflecting the degree of market consistency. c. Option market: IV volatility can reflect the pricing of valuation risk for major events (financial reports, interest rate hikes). d. Corporate behavior: Repurchase vs. Issuance, determining the management's attitude towards the current valuation; The dividend policy affects the willingness to buy value based stocks. e. Social Emotions and Discourse Power: In the US Stock Exchange Era, Narrative=Valuation Premium (such as NVDA, PLTR) 🔎 Summary: No matter how perfect the valuation is, if the market doesn't buy it, it's just empty talk. ✅ Summary: Three key suggestions for building a valuation system one ️⃣ Starting from the texture, determine whether the value is worth studying or not two ️⃣ Pricing based on business logic to determine its value three ️⃣ Verify with market feedback to determine if buying points are valid Valuation is not a single point judgment, but a logical chain: business → finance → macro → model → market behavior. The true master is not to find the "most undervalued" company, but to find a company that the market is willing to offer a premium and you dare to buy. @MyStongs_Org @ MyStongsCN is a decentralized platform for US stock tokens, supported by 1:1 real US stock assets managed by Fidelity Previously, retail investors who wanted to invest in Apple or Nvidia either had to open US stock accounts Either you can only buy various shadow funds Now, as long as you have a wallet and use USDT on MyStonks, you can directly buy the token AAPL. M representing Apple on the chain. The entire process is transparent on the chain, and there is 1:1 custody of actual stocks https://mystonks.org/?code=Hl6B41 Don't waste the knockoff season No matter what market What makes money is a good market