Why the decline in the cryptocurrency market is caused by the resonance of multiple factors 1、 Geopolitics and oil price shocks The escalation of the Middle East conflict: Trump's tough stance has intensified market panic, causing the Iranian currency to fall 2.79% in 24 hours. Funds have flowed into safe haven assets such as gold, and Bitcoin has been sold off as a risky asset. Transmission of oil price fluctuations: The situation in the Middle East has pushed up energy costs, and domestic oil prices are expected to rise by 580 yuan/ton, putting pressure on consumer purchasing power and indirectly suppressing cryptocurrency liquidity. 2、 Macro sentiment and market cycle shift Fed policy digestion: The expectation of unchanged interest rate decision in June has been absorbed by the market, but the hawkish inflation stance has raised concerns about liquidity tightening. Emotions shift from greed to neutrality: In May, the "extreme greed" sentiment cooled down, and Bitcoin fell below the key support of $104000, triggering a technical sell-off. Although long-term holders on the chain were accumulating, short-term funds withdrew. 3、 Short term fluctuations driven by liquidity Market characteristics of consolidation period news: Bitcoin has lacked trend in the past month, and its price is driven by news (such as Trump's tariff threat and Musk controversy), making it easy to approach the "liquidity magnetic zone". Co weakness of altcoins: The ETH/BTC ratio is weak, and Bitcoin's dominant position has risen to 48%. altcoins have failed to break through the resistance level of $1.24 trillion, and funds have flowed back into mainstream currencies. 4、 Technological breakthrough and capital flow Key support lost: Bitcoin fell below its monthly opening price of $104600, and if the daily closing price remains below $104000, it may drop by $102000-100000. Selling pressure on the chain is evident: exchange outflows have increased by 23% month on month, with a decrease in long positions in perpetual contracts and an increase in bearish sentiment in the market. Short term outlook Geopolitical conflicts, Federal Reserve policies, and the struggle for support at $104000 are the core variables. If Bitcoin recovers from that level or eases its decline. BTC ETH BNB