Let's briefly break down some core details of yesterday's Federal Reserve FOMC Firstly, against the backdrop of Trump's public urging for interest rate cuts again, Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve is not influenced by politics Of course, the overall market is not volatile, still rising first and then falling, and the overall sentiment is still holding its breath Let's break it down first, and put the core conclusion at the end: 1. Interest rate 12 votes unanimously maintain the 4.25-4.50% interest rate, remain unchanged for four consecutive times, and continue to observe the turning points of inflation and employment (consistent with my previous analysis) 2. Lattice diagram At the end of 2025, the median is 3.9% (=two 25 bp downgrades), and from 2026-27, there will only be one further decline each There has been no change in the two interest rate cuts, but there have been disagreements within the members: the number of people supporting zero interest rate cuts has increased, and there is already a certain tendency towards hawks 3. Tariff impact This is the first time that the Federal Reserve has explicitly listed tariffs as an upward risk of inflation in a formal document. Due to early stockpiling of imports and fluctuations in net exports, Q1 GDP may be lowered, which may push up prices in the future 4.GDP 1.4%、 The unemployment rate is 4.5% PCE 3.0% The economy is beginning to move towards stagflation, with a slowdown in economic growth, rising prices, and a loosening of employment margins 5. Balance Sheet The shrinking process remains unchanged, and there is no discussion on slowing down the speed. The monthly upper limit will remain unchanged Simply put, there are three core conclusions -The probability of launching a 50bp set of interest rates in September (with interest rate cuts starting in September and two cuts of 25 each) is the highest, unless the inflation caused by tariffs is sticky beyond expectations -The probability of recession is currently very low, with slow but at least positive growth. The main concern for not cutting interest rates now is the stickiness of prices and the cooling of the job market -Pay attention to the core PCE, ISM service industry price sub items, and Employment Cost Index (ECI) for July and August, which is related to whether there will be two interest rate cuts this year