🧐🇺🇸 US prepares to attack Iran: Comprehensive interpretation | Wartime V-shaped market outlook The smoke of war in the Middle East is about to erupt. Today, the United States announced that it may launch an attack on Iran this weekend, stirring up the global market. However, regarding the data on the BTC chain, a completely different script has been given: Current status: Although there is a sudden outbreak of war, all indicators are still in the "healthy zone". 1) Selling pressure is approaching exhaustion, and giant whales and ETFs are quietly taking over; 2) Active addresses and computing power are still advancing rapidly. In other words, funds are being withdrawn from exchanges, not Bitcoin. If the war is only a short-term impact, on chain data shows that it is more likely to experience a "first decline and then absorption" rather than a deep bear turn. This pattern of first falling and then strong buying is likely to complete a chip turnover around $100k, and then take advantage of the vacuum zone where panic dissipates to hit 110-115K - instead of a deep bear turn or breaking through the 95K level. So the market trend looks like this: Before the situation in Iran officially becomes clear, BTC may experience a 5-8% shock pullback, but the strong support from Whale's replenishment, ETF subscriptions, and computing power endorsements. If the impact lands quickly, it is expected that $100k ± 3k will be a strong suction band; After the panic dissipates, the probability of BTC touching 110 k-115 k again is greater than continuing to fall below 95 k. 1) Selling pressure dried up, off-site buying relay The large net outflows in the past 48 hours have occurred synchronously with the net purchases of ETFs, indicating that the sellers mainly come from profit taking rather than panic buying; Institutions and whales take advantage of the opportunity to absorb liquidity. If the United States really launches an attack on Iran, the historical pattern is often "event shock → sharp drop on the same day or the next day → continued depletion of inflows → rapid price rebound". The current on chain funding structure has laid the groundwork for this' V-shaped repair '. 2) Maintaining Health through Activity and Safety The active addresses remain in the range of 860000 to 900000, and the popularity of on chain usage has not cooled down due to geopolitical news. A new high in computing power means that miners are fully incentivized for the long-term value of BTC, and the probability of a chain attack on block production and security caused by geopolitical shocks is extremely low. 3) Mild profit/loss pressure STH-SOPR is close to 1, indicating that short-term profits are not abundant and there is a lack of motivation for large-scale profit taking; If there is a breakdown of 1, it is necessary to be alert to panic and stampede. Long term giant whales continue to increase their holdings, hedging against potential retail selling pressure.