qinbafrank
qinbafrank|Jun 18, 2025 22:27
After watching this parliamentary meeting, I feel like a dove in the dark eagle. The Federal Reserve continues to remain inactive, with a statement no longer stating that economic uncertainty has further increased, but rather that it has weakened but remains high. The risk of rising unemployment and inflation has been removed, and the impact of net export volatility on data has been reiterated, but the economy continues to expand steadily. The important dot matrix interest rate expectations remain unchanged compared to the last time, with two 25 basis point rate cuts still expected. However, the interest rate dot matrix shows that there are three to seven people who do not expect a rate cut compared to the last time, and eight people who predict two rate cuts. The Federal Reserve has lowered its GDP growth forecast for the next two years, expecting a slowdown in GDP growth to 1.4% this year. It has also raised its expectations for the unemployment rate and PCE inflation for the next three years, with PCE expected to be 3.0% this year, significantly higher than the recently announced official level of 2.1%. Powell's speech continued the previous tone of uncertainty and wait-and-see, but this time he made it clear that the impact of tariffs on inflation may be more stubborn, and it is expected that there will be a certain degree of inflationary pressure increase in the coming months (which is clearer and more specific than his previous statement). But it also indicates that the overall impact of tariffs, how long they will last, and when they will be fully reflected are all very uncertain. Satisfied with the job market situation, stating that "the labor market is not calling for interest rate cuts
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