Today's homework is difficult to write. Let's write less about the geopolitical conflict. Basically, the information available is about the same as that of everyone. In general, although the United States has not ended, the preparations should be almost done. Trump's mouth does not know whether it is good for Iran. Now many regions of Iran are no longer available online. However, Iran also said that it never asked to bow down before the White House. This war is very different from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, more like a war of annihilation. The main manifestation of geopolitical conflicts is still reflected in oil prices, especially the USOIL oil price that has always been recommended, which can better reflect the direction of war. Moreover, the rise in oil prices has also driven domestic inflation in the United States. Powell talked about this topic at today's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. Geopolitical conflicts and tariffs are both reasons that hinder the Fed's interest rate cuts. Powell still insists on looking at the data, which is expected. Everyone has already fully anticipated that there will be no interest rate cut in June, and the key point is the dot matrix. The dot matrix for 2025 is still two times, which is quite good, much better than the expected one or zero times by many investors in the market. Therefore, the probability of a rate cut in September has increased again. Although there is only one expected rate cut in 2026, it is still very early, and the Federal Reserve will adjust it at any time. Therefore, for the market, this dot matrix is relatively neutral. In Powell's speech, the focus was also on the impact of tariffs and geopolitical conflicts on interest rate adjustments. Powell believed that tariffs still need to be determined by the final data, but he believed that the rise in energy caused by war is short-term, which means the rise in inflation is short-term. He also believed that the US economy is still healthy, with a low unemployment rate and no demand for interest rate cuts in the labor market. Therefore, overall, Powell's speech today can be considered neutral. The next step is to see the market's reaction. Returning to the data of Bitcoin, the turnover rate has slightly increased, but the increase is not significant. The factor of turnover is still closely related to geopolitical conflicts. However, Powell has stated that the impact of conflicts on inflation is short-term, and it is unclear whether it can alleviate investors' concerns about rising oil prices. BTC participating in turnover is still mainly short-term investors. From the perspective of supporting data, the range of $93000 to $98000 is still the best support. Even though there has been significant price volatility recently, investors in this area have not shown signs of panic and exit, but have remained very stable. Investors in the range of $100500 to $105000 are continuing to pile up, which is currently considered good, but the risk coefficient will increase if they continue to pile up. There won't be any important macro data on Thursday and Friday, and the market dominance has temporarily returned to geopolitical conflicts. This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex