The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter|Jun 18, 2025 16:37
Credit investors are concerned about the US fiscal situation: Credit markets are now pricing US credit as if it were rated BBB+, 6 notches below its official credit grade of AA+. This is just 3 notches above the non-investment grade status. Credit default swap market pricing has also deteriorated over the last few months as US fiscal outlook has worsened. This comes as the US deficit is projected to reach 6-7% of GDP over the next 2 years, only below the World Wars, 2008, and 2020 levels. Furthermore, in January, the US government reached its statutory borrowing cap and implemented “extraordinary measures” to prevent a default. The US deficit spending crisis is worsening.
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