Nick, as the voice of the Federal Reserve, has started to take preventive measures again. His series of posts actually express that "the situation is stronger than people". No matter what the Federal Reserve's voters say and vote for, no matter whether the dot matrix is ugly or beautiful, it cannot change the fact that the Federal Reserve will adjust its pace and policies according to the real market at any time. Just like in mid-2024, the Federal Reserve adjusted the dot matrix from three times to once, but ultimately reduced it by 100 basis points (equivalent to four times). What he wants to express is that the Federal Reserve's members are very professional and will adjust the level of interest rates based on objective circumstances and data, in order to continue maintaining the authority and image of the Federal Reserve. Yesterday, he also spoke out saying that if it weren't for Chuanzi's reckless tariff war, the interest rate would have been reduced by now. Similarly, if Trump is greedy for Iran's interests and leaves the hot war rashly, which will lead to inflation and interest rate reduction, it will be even more remote If Trump really intervenes militarily in Iran (such as bombing nuclear facilities), it could trigger an "inflation interest rate" death spiral: Iran retaliates by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices could skyrocket to 120+, directly pushing up the US CPI by about 2.5 percentage points. War fiscal deficit surges → US bond issuance surges → global sell-off of US bonds → weakening of US dollar safe haven properties → gold and Bitcoin become ultimate hedging tools What the market needs to recognize now is that the dot matrix has gradually become a "bottom line statement", and the path of the real interest rate depends on the game result between Trump's behavior (trade/war/TACO transaction) and the risk of market collapse (such as the collapse of U.S. stocks). The infighting between Chuanzi and Master Bao is still ongoing.