Early in the morning, I looked at the performance of various market indicators and discovered a noteworthy phenomenon. In theory, due to the tense situation in the Middle East, crude oil and gold should rise, while risk markets such as the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market should fall. Last night, all three major indexes of the US stock market closed down normally. Although oil prices have fluctuated in recent days, they are generally in an upward structure. The large pie followed the US stock market to fall to the support level of 103300, and the Ethereum fell to the support level of 2450, which is very normal. But it's very strange that gold is currently not rising but falling instead. Generally speaking, market risk can be divided into several levels: The highest level is systemic risk, with stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange being hit hard, and bulk gold falling together. The next level is ordinary safe haven, with US bonds, US dollars, gold rising and the stock market falling. But now, the situation where the king of safe haven gold is falling alone is unpredictable and there must be a demon. As mentioned in yesterday's quote, there are signs of escalation in the current situation. In the event that Iran loses air superiority, as long as the United States is determined, such as sending multiple B2 planes carrying heavy ground penetrating bombs GBU-57 to continuously drop them, can Foldo withstand one and ten? In the case that Iran can be solved once and for all with such easy success, various information shows that Trump is inclined to military adventure. The Federal Reserve will hold its interest rate meeting at 2:00 am tomorrow. Although it is basically certain that there will be no interest rate cut this time, the dot matrix is still worth paying attention to. Besides these superficial data, we should also look at the underlying logic of why the United States is not cutting interest rates. A simple reason is that we have not harvested enough cheap assets under the current wave of the US dollar. Rushing to cut interest rates will trigger internal inflation in the United States, which is why we have to use wild methods such as stablecoins to prolong our lives and buy time to find other solutions. But if it can cause a chain reaction of global turmoil by detonating Iran, such as using high oil prices to boost the European economy and increase manufacturing costs for China, Japan, and South Korea, or detonating the US stock market crisis and gradually repairing it over three years, it would actually be very beneficial for the Republican Party's re-election. In summary, the decline in gold may be a feedback to the US not cutting interest rates tomorrow. If the US dollar index strengthens or even threatens to raise interest rates, it makes sense for gold to weaken. At the same time, the gold price also reflects that the market is not overly concerned about the escalation of the situation in Iran, so the decline in risk markets such as the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market is only emotional rather than structural. So although Iran's timid behavior is continuing to lure Kawako into military adventures, causing systemic risks to rise, his consistent TACO performance makes it difficult for the market to believe that he will strongly participate before the US military really leaves. And the market's performance is the best feedback for this conflicted mentality.