If the Iran Israel conflict before yesterday was still within a predictable and controllable range, with the escalation of the situation in recent days, especially since early this morning, there is a possibility of the war escalating out of control and expanding into a protracted war similar to that between Russia and Ukraine. Several observation points on the possibility of escalating tensions in the Middle East: 1. Trump ended the G7 meeting ahead of schedule and returned to the United States. Although he has pushed to deny that it was because he hurried back to deal with the situation in the Middle East ahead of schedule, it is well known that Chuanzi had no truth in his mouth, and although G7 is really becoming less and less important and there is no need to hold it, it is worth thinking about the reasons why he did so when he knew that it would cause world speculation. Either it's manipulating the market in a mysterious way, or there are military actions that need to be discussed with aides. 2. China accelerates the evacuation of its citizens from Israel, possibly obtaining information about the escalation of the situation through diplomatic channels 3. Russia evacuated its citizens and drove them away from Russia and several friendly countries through Azerbaijan 4. The United States evacuates its citizens, but the US embassy is no longer responsible for organizing it. It is necessary for the citizens to evacuate on their own, which may be an official expression of support for Israel that cannot erase face 5. Other countries have also begun to evacuate their citizens 6. Israel continues to destroy Iran's command system and today killed the Chief of Staff of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, who has only been in office for three days. This indicates that Iran's anti espionage operations in recent days have not been effective, whether it is infiltration or betrayal by the defense forces. It shows that Iran has many internal problems and even the highest military leaders cannot protect them. Iran recalls all doctors and nurses on vacation 8. Israel directly launches death threats against Khamenei A few pieces of information that won't upgrade: 1. The underground missile launch port of Iran's missile launcher has been destroyed, and the missile cannot be launched in the future, resulting in weak counterattacks 2. Israel's air defense missiles are rapidly depleted, and if they cannot be launched in the future, they may actively cool down 3. The increase in US refueling planes and aircraft carriers is more about posture, and giving Israel heavy ground penetrating bombs is a danger signal. In the absence of Iran's air superiority, it seems that the United States only needs to send bombers to drop heavy ground penetrating bombs to permanently destroy Iran's nuclear facilities, and no longer have to worry about the so-called Iran nuclear negotiations. But why not do this? If Iran's air defense system is easily destroyed, followed by the complete exposure of its nuclear facilities, then what are we talking about for so many years? Why didn't Iran completely dismantle its nuclear forces earlier. 4. The possibility and impact of Iran's withdrawal from the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty. If Iran does not have nuclear weapons or the ability to retaliate, what impact does it have if it cannot withdraw? And what value does its peace talks have? After all, there is no threat or bargaining chip at all. Although the outbreak of oil tanker fires in the strait has created a war atmosphere, if the conflict continues to escalate and Iran even blocks the Strait of Hormuz, it is questionable how much impact it will have on oil prices given the current proportion of transportation in the strait, and the rise in oil prices will benefit electric vehicles. Blocking the Strait of Hormuz is not beneficial for both China and the United States, and Iran's own capabilities are limited. The possibility of doing so is unlikely, and it depends on whether the situation escalates in the future to gradually reach this point. 6. Although Israel threatens to kill Khamenei verbally, in reality, it has to do it early. Keeping this person behind will only have a negative impact on Iran. If he is really killed, it will actually fulfill his physical sanctity. Iran will quickly awaken under the inspiration of national emotions in the future, causing greater trouble for Israel The Strait of Hormuz currently accounts for only 21% of the world's total, and a large part of it belongs to China. Blocking the strait is not beneficial to oneself, and it will also limit foreign trade imports and exports and weaken one's own strength. Therefore, there is no need to do things that harm others and benefit oneself until the end. 8. For every $10 increase in oil price, the US CPI will increase by 0.5 percentage point. Why does Trump do something thankless to the US? Unless Kawako himself needs this trigger to clear the US stock crisis and give the Federal Reserve a step to cut interest rates. Just now, Nick just conveyed that if it weren't for the tariff war cutting interest rates this month, could the escalation of the Middle East situation be an excuse for not cutting interest rates in the tariff war?