
看不懂的sol|Jun 16, 2025 12:51
A brother asked, why does Livermore say he never buys during a pullback?
In fact, in his memoirs as a great writer, he made a metaphor: would you squat next to a lion after it knocks down an antelope and wait for it to spit out a piece of meat before picking it up.
If you truly understand Livermore's thoughts, you will know why he never buys during a pullback.
Livermore's first tip:
My experience is sufficient to prove that the real profits earned in speculative trading come from positions that are profitable from the beginning.
Speculators must promptly stop their initial small losses to avoid causing themselves greater losses. Only in this way can the fund account be maintained in a good state and one's financial strength be maximally preserved.
Successful speculators will never allow themselves to rely solely on speculation for market operations. In order to ensure their long-term and secure success, investors or speculators must firmly grasp the stock market judgment criteria that are suitable for themselves.
When I see a stock on the market record that has entered an upward trend, I will wait until the stock price shows a normal downward correction before immediately buying when the stock price reaches a new high.
When the price of a stock starts to fall, no one can predict where its bottom will be. Similarly, in a significant upward trend, no one can predict where its top will be. Never buy a stock just because it has dropped significantly from its previous peak, and never sell it just because it looks too expensive.
The reasons for Livermore's insights and how to achieve profitability from the beginning of a position:
Let's continue reading. The entry point for Livermore into the market is as follows:
Anyway, I will patiently wait for the market to reach what I call the 'key point' before trading, and this approach always allows me to make profits in trading.
So his entry point is always when the price reaches the "key point" he mentioned before entering the market. From the text, it can be seen that this is a recent key high or low point in the price.
Because the trading timing I have chosen is precisely the psychological timing that marks the start of the market. So I never have to worry about losses.
Because once it fails to enter the market in a timely manner, it will lose a large amount of profit reserves in the early stage, which is a reliable guarantee for maintaining courage and patience.
And I was completely unmoved by it, and the reliable guarantee that persisted until the end was the profit reserve in this early stage.
Why?
Because the trading timing I have chosen is precisely the psychological timing that marks the start of the market. So I never have to worry about losses.
The reason is simple, that is, when my market judgment criteria signal, I take decisive action and gradually increase my holdings according to this signal. After that, the only thing I need to do is hold my position and wait, letting the stock market develop on its own.
I am well aware that with this, the market itself will send a signal at the appropriate time, allowing me to end the transaction and reap profits. I will bravely and patiently wait for such market signals at any time, without exception. Similarly, the market will also reward me with substantial profits as a result.
My experience has always proven one truth, which is that if I don't enter the market in a timely manner shortly after the market starts, it's impossible to make substantial profits in this round of market. Because once the market is not entered in a timely manner, a large amount of profit reserves in the early stage will be lost, and this early profit reserve is a reliable guarantee for maintaining courage and patience throughout the entire process of market development to its end.
It can be seen that timely entry into the market is very necessary! Throughout the entire process of market changes, stock prices are bound to experience varying degrees of small-scale corrections or rebounds from time to time, and I am completely unmoved by them. The reliable guarantee that I have been holding onto until the end is the profit reserve in this early stage.
Just as the market will send you a positive entry signal at the right time, as long as you have enough patience to wait, the market will definitely send you an exit signal at the right time.
Rome was not built in a day, and any truly significant stock market trend cannot be achieved in a day or a week. The entire process of market initiation, development, and termination requires a certain amount of time to gradually complete.
In a market cycle, the biggest market change usually occurs within the last 48 hours before the end of the entire market, which is the most critical time for you to hold onto your position. In other words, during this period, it is crucial for you to stay in the market, patiently hold positions, and wait.
From this, we can see that the reason why Livermore is able to eat most of the profits in the trend market is precisely because as soon as he enters the market, he can have a reserve of profits in the early stage, which is a very important point in his trading, and this can only be obtained through trend breakthroughs.
If we buy during a pullback, we cannot guarantee the profitability of our position as soon as we enter the market.
Due to the unpredictable nature of a market correction, we do not know whether it is a true correction or a reversal of the trend, nor do we know the depth of this correction. Therefore, it is easy to experience frequent stop loss exits as soon as we enter the market due to a correction, stop loss exits, re-entry, and subsequent stop loss exits.
And adopting the approach of entering the market at key points is a validated market trend. Later, we will conduct another verification by timely stop loss. If the key point is a false breakthrough, we will stop loss and exit normally. If it is a true breakthrough, the trend will move towards the next key point, and in this way, we will reserve the early profits. So, in fact, our position was profitable from the beginning until it was closed.
So Livermore would never consider buying during a pullback.
Our current discussion on the opening point of Livermore, although different times, has little reference value for specific technical details. But the biggest reason why Livermore considers this opening position is that it can bring profits in the early stages of opening, and profitable positions can allow him to continue holding with confidence, thereby gaining more profits. The positive feedback formed by this trading strategy and trading psychology is exactly what we can learn from now.
The answers are all from the book "Stock Trading Techniques" by Jesse Livermore, which is the only handwritten work by the stock market genius Livermore.
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