
Phyrex|Jun 15, 2025 19:01
Yesterday I spent the whole day lying down, and today I spent the whole day watching dramas. Especially when I watch dramas alone, my efficiency shouldn't be too high. Even now, I still feel a bit trendy. Yesterday, I mentioned that the price range between $104800 and $105500 is likely to be a weekend fluctuation range. In fact, it is still the case, but I still haven't placed an order. War is not something I am good at, and I would rather go empty handed than use a gambling mindset to place an order. Of course, this is only for myself.
After CME opened on Monday, I may readjust it, but the bottom $102000 is still not going to move. Let it go first. Maybe next week it will do harm to us. Today is Trump's birthday, which is unexpectedly calm. Trump also calls for the war to stop as soon as possible. Look at the market reaction on Monday. After a weekend, it should not be very serious.
The focus of next week may still be on geopolitical conflicts and Sino US trade, especially Sino US trade. Although Trump said very well, a basic consensus has been reached. In addition to maintaining the original tariffs and properly opening up rare earth minerals, China is still tight lipped. Let's see if there will be new progress next week.
However, currently BTC is quite stable, and geopolitical conflicts have not yet had a significant impact. The hardness of Bitcoin is also evident, but the lack of large-scale purchases by traditional investors has been a concern for me.
In addition, there will be several macro data updates next week, one of which is Japan's interest rates. Although Japan also has many problems, it is highly likely that the interest rate will not be adjusted next Sunday, so it is still relatively good for the time being.
Next Tuesday, there will be the release of US retail data, with a negative forecast and an expectation of deflation. This indicates that household consumption is decreasing. The United States is a consumption driven economy, and a decline in retail sales usually indicates a weakening of consumer confidence and a warning of slowing economic growth. Retail sales are a forward-looking indicator of personal consumption (PCE) in GDP, and if it continues to be negative, the pressure on GDP growth will increase.
In addition, Thursday is the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, and it is almost certain that interest rates will remain unchanged. The key is to look at the dot matrix, followed by Powell's speech. We will discuss this in detail on Wednesday.
Other Bitcoin data also showed weekend trends, there's nothing special to say, just a little bit of a dip.
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