Orange Evening Interpretation 6.12 Nowadays, shanzhai is too sensitive. If there is a slight fluctuation in the market, it will immediately die for you. It can be said that the trend of shanzhai in this round is completely different from before. In the past, the cryptocurrency market was still in a primitive era. As long as the project team tells a good story, draws a good cake, creates a beautiful website, gives a few big VCs some coins for free, and then puts on a good CEX, the token can also go well; If a few projects of the same level are announced for cooperation from time to time, maybe more leeks can be brought in to play. If there are a few amazing projects on the same track, such as the oracle track link and the loan track aave, If the price increases a hundred times in a month, you can still take a ride, but now this operation is obviously not feasible. Relying solely on packaging cannot raise money. Now that the cryptocurrency market has gradually become standardized and militarized, the capital scale has increased by several levels compared to before, but the people behind the capital are more professional. They have various tools to thoroughly exploit your project. Real users, real performance, monthly activity, profitability, business model, profit margin, future growth potential, etc. can be fully quantified in one day. This kind of trick of solving problems is clear to both people and ghosts. This has also led to many previous projects being severely overvalued in the eyes of capital. The reason why they still maintain it is that they can fully quantify the project in one day. Having a certain FDV is completely meme Supported by the effect, as there are more and more truly valuable projects in the future, the survival space of those old coins will only be smaller; Due to the emergence of platforms such as pump, letsbonk, and believe, thousands of coins are being released every day in this round. In fact, the participants of PVP on the chain are the same group as the retail investors who used to play second level games on CEX and invest in first level projects such as pie charts and whitepapers. Therefore, this round is not without counterfeit market trends. It's just that the previous value coins were seen as funny in the eyes of mainstream funds. Players who used to play this so-called value coin all ran to the chain and found that memes were actually stripped of their outer layer. So, the counterfeit bull has already happened in this round, with hundreds or even thousands of times more coins appearing on memes, AI agents, inscriptions, and runes. But now... Cex A large part of those once glorious old coins may never have a chance again, which is why I have been calling on those who insist on the strategy of using knockoff to sell their positions and exchange them in a timely manner. Instead of betting on this small probability of profit, it is better to concentrate funds and fight against the leaders, shift to an institutional perspective, and quantify the fundamentals of the project. In fact, these are already high-risk return investment strategies. In the past year, even the leaders of various sectors have rarely outperformed the big cake. In my eyes, the future knockoff bull is that such projects can sell excess returns, of course, the main position must still be big cake. In this round, I do not plan to invest in old coins again, and I do not even want to look at popular sectors such as Long Er Long San. Just focus on the leader. Last night, the overall CPI inflation was lower than expected, and Chuan Ziting directly pressured Powell to cut interest rates by 100 basis points. Excitedly, he almost bought US stocks, but soon bad news came from the Middle East, and the market turned downwards. The US Iran nuclear negotiations were basically broken, and Israel had informed the United States that it would strike Iran's nuclear facilities. The Americans expected Iran to retaliate against US military bases in Iraq, and there were reports that the US State Department had ordered non emergency personnel from embassies and consulates to evacuate Iraq. It seems that the Middle East War 2.0 is coming again. Looking back on the period of the Israeli Palestinian War, we paid a lot of military expenses, and the loss of nuclear equipment this time will not also be borne by us. This is due to the market correction last night. The main reason. In terms of counterfeit trading, ETH has also been in a general downward trend since last night, but its performance has been good. The inflow amount of ETF reached 240 million on a certain day, which should be a record breaking figure, even higher than the 160 million inflow of Da Bing ETF last night. It seems that institutions are becoming more interested in ETH, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate is still on the rise. As the leader of counterfeit trading, this means that as long as the market will rise, there is still hope for counterfeit bulls; Sol/ETH has been in a downward trend recently, and the news of the upcoming approval of the Sol ETF the day before yesterday did not make Sol much stronger. In addition, Sol also has a downside, saying that the Sol version of the micro strategy has suspended its 1 billion securities issuance plan, which has reduced many potential buying opportunities for Sol; Other well performing knockoffs generally have their advantages. For example, due to Murad's promotion of the god coin Aura, which saw a 10x increase yesterday, the concept of cult coins was once again pursued by funds. As a leader in the market, SPX naturally benefits from it; Kaia, as the first chain in South Korea, may have to take on more responsibilities after Lee Jae myung takes office, and has been very strong during this period; In addition, last night plasma increased the deposit limit by 500 million, and this time it was fully filled in 30 minutes. It can only be said that the market is not short of money, but money only recognizes impressive projects.