Macro outlook for next week: US May CPI data to be released on Wednesday

金色财经|Jun 07, 2025 13:01
Golden Finance reports that the key macro data release milestones for next week are as follows:
Monday 22:00, wholesale sales monthly rate for April in the United States;
Monday 23:00, May New York Fed's 1-year inflation forecast;
Wednesday 20:30, May CPI data for the United States;
Wednesday 22:30, EIA crude oil inventory, Cushing crude oil inventory, and strategic petroleum reserve inventory for the week ending June 6 in the United States;
Thursday 20:30, initial jobless claims and May PPI for the week ending June 7th in the United States;
At 22:00 on Friday, the initial expectations for the one-year inflation rate in June and the initial values for the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in June in the United States.
The US May CPI report to be released next Wednesday will test the market's optimism about interest rate cuts, as it may indicate a recent stagnation in the downward trend of inflation. According to the Nowcast model of the Cleveland Fed, the overall CPI is expected to increase by 2.4% year-on-year in May, higher than last month's 2.3%; The core CPI is expected to increase by 2.8% year-on-year, unchanged from last month. Analysts predict that the three-month annualized inflation rate for core commodities will peak in the early autumn (4% -5%), slightly lower and delayed than the forecast before the suspension of "equivalent tariffs" on May 8th.
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