HOW THE BBB WORKS AND WHY @ELONMUSK IS RETARDED (IN THIS SMALL CASE, ELON PLEASE FIND GOD AND DON'T NUKE MY ACCOUNT) Important 30 minutes watch (1.5x speed) regarding the BBB if you are on the Tech Right / Libertarian. tldr: most of you, DO NOT KNOW WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT. 1. Chart Crimes & Tech Innumeracy The misleading national debt graphs drive me nuts. The Debt:GDP *ratio* charts are bit closer to the mark (we can comfortably grow debt, provided that growth is lower than GDP growth), but in general the austerity hardliners are WRONG. And they are WRONG for three core reasons: + spending cuts vs. curbs are political suicide because the Democrats will not give one inch on spending. + the "tax cuts" are not CUTS, they are a nix of a massive tax HIKE, which would be recessionary and slash 1 trillion of GDP growth this year, costing 4 million jobs. + the issue is the INTEREST on our debt, not debt:GDP If we pass BBB, then the Trump deficit will be SMALLER than any Biden deficit AND shrink to <3% by 2028. 2. Danger Zone Multiple Our debt IS a major problem because confidence in the U.S. Treasury markets were destroyed by the Biden admin. This is why Scott Bessent is so focused on the 10 year Treasury yield: Janet Yellen racked up record amounts of short-term T-bills that need to be rolled into MASSIVE quarterly auctions. If you take the product of Debt:GDP and the 10 year treasury yield - I call it the "Danger Zone Multiple" - that has DOUBLED since Trump left office. It's HIGHER than the post-Jimmy Carter shit economy. Bringing this DZM down requires three things: + NO RECESSION + Spending curbs, cuts (welfare reform, DOGE, MAHA) + Strong global investment (Middle East, Japan, India) If we have a recession, INCREASE the deficit, or squander global investor confidence, we are FUCKED. 3. What's NOT Counted as Savings Inside the BBB It's maddening, but the 2025 deficit is estimated to be 2.2 trillion. That excludes 200-400 billion in tariff revenue, 200 billion in DOGE savings that could be codified in subsequent spending bills, and 200-300 billion in savings from ending illegal immigration. Add those up, and keep GDP growth positive, and we have a deficit that is LOWER as a % of GDP than any Biden year, including the outlier 2022 year where the IRS benefited from bubble-driven capital gains receipts. 4. Reconciliation not Magical Thinking Most people DON'T UNDERSTAND how a bill gets made. This is the only bill with spending cuts that can possibly pass this Congress. It passed by a single vote in the House, and it will only pass in the Senate with GOP votes. The Reconciliation process is the ONLY way to pass this set of tax and spending cuts. Any "regular order" bill that goes through "appropriations" will need 60 votes in the Senate, which means the GOP and the entire Trump agenda and therefore the country are Chuck Schumer's bitch. TECH DOESN'T UNDERSTAND THIS PROCEDURAL DYNAMIC AND ARE LIVING IN FANTASY LAND. 5. A Beautiful Deleveraging We are out of options post-Biden. We can do a deflationary debt spiral that destroys the economy, sets off a recession, destroys GOP prospects, and hands the U.S. to a permanent Marxist majority in 2028. OR We can have a modest dollar devaluation, spending curbs, and creative jolts to domestic investment (trade deals), while keeping a close eye on the 10 year yield like an altimeter. 6. Largest spending cut in my lifetime. To show you how DERANGED Democrats are, they are fighting the "Medicaid cuts" because they add PART TIME work requirements for ABLE-BODIED adults with no dependents who REFUSE TO WORK, VOLUNTEER, or GO TO SCHOOL. To show you how DERANGED Democrats are, they are fighting the "Green New Deal cuts" that primarily benefit the Chinese manufacturers who make the subsidized solar panels and EV batteries. Together these are 1.5 trillion in cuts. This is PHASE ONE, and additional DOGE cuts should follow in OTHER AREAS that LEGALLY can't be handled via reconciliation. 7. The Border Security Portion The BBB saves the country with its immigration provisions. It spends 150 billion on border security to save much more than that long-term. Mass deportations would boost Black wages and employment, reduce Black rent and incarceration rates, and border security measures would radically reduce the magnitude and cost of the fentanyl epidemic. We can survive a debt crisis and another bout of inflation, but not if we are overrun by third-worlders who don't speak English, have the skills we need, or values we want or are just looking for "gibs." 8. Defense Spending The most frustrating part of BBB is the headline increase in defense spending. HOWEVER, we have never faced more geopolitical risk by stronger foes in our lifetime. We have issues with China (who dominates us in drones, and shipbuilding), Russia (who may retaliate after our "ally" Pearl Harbored 40% of the Russian nuclear triad), and Iran (which threatens the stability of the entire ME region and domestic security). The 150 billion increase for Defense is 0.5% of GDP, but PEACE IS CHEAPER THAN WAR. 9. AI Flexibility The BBB prevents rogue U.S. lib states from regulating American AI and creating a regulatory straightjacket for a strategic industry of similar importance to the nuclear energy in the 1940s. 10. LET THEM COOK The Trump team is soliciting foreign investment via our trade deals. Stablecoins could drive 2 trillion in demand for short-term treasuries (drive down yields), and Bobby Kennedy is going to start executing fatties on the national mall to get health spending down. We just need the absolute SNAKES to get out of the way, and Trust the Plan. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER.