Phyrex
Phyrex|Jun 05, 2025 04:41
I have always believed that the issue of counterfeit seasons is related to overall liquidity. It is not that the market does not need counterfeit seasons, but rather that the current liquidity does not support the outbreak of counterfeit seasons, especially during times of monetary tightening. However, I believe that counterfeit seasons will still emerge during times of monetary easing. The US stock market is a good example. Compared to the US stock market, the time for cryptocurrency is too short, to the point where it is the first ever BTC halving cycle combined with the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening, resulting in a lack of liquidity and many partners' previous experiences are no longer useful. From the perspective of the US stock market, although the Nasdaq and S&P often break new highs, small cap stocks are still struggling. Not to mention Nike, which I have been watching, the stock price trend of McDonald's is not very good, let alone the manufacturing and retail industries. But the effect of the cycle is definitely still there. This cycle is monetary policy. When it is loose, liquidity is better, investment risk appetite increases, and people are more willing to invest in high growth and high-risk targets. When the currency is tight, more investment is made in defensive assets. So I think there will definitely be a knockoff season, although it may be in the 2028 cycle.
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