How to establish a comprehensive macroeconomic analysis framework? Brothers, it is important to understand that macroeconomic analysis is a crucial node in deciphering the codes of financial cycles and liquidity. Only by understanding the linkage logic of "central bank bank finance entity" can both the cryptocurrency and stock markets grasp trends in market fluctuations and achieve "cross cycle allocation" of assets, Let investment decisions be rooted in the underlying laws of economic operation, rather than short-term noise. 1、 Basic ideas for constructing a macroeconomic analysis framework Clear analysis purpose: Determine the focus of the framework based on the key areas of concern, such as economic growth, cycles, production, and distribution. Dividing the economy into physical and financial levels. At the physical level, it includes production activities and non-financial circulation activities; The financial aspect mainly involves asset pricing and resource allocation. Building a basic framework: With "banking system financial market real economy" as the core, combined with the fiscal system, a basic analytical framework is formed. 2、 The main components of macroeconomic analysis framework Central Bank and Monetary Policy: Central Bank Balance Sheet: Understand the asset and liability structure of the central bank and analyze its impact on market liquidity. Excess reserve ratio system: By analyzing the central bank's monetary policy tools (such as MLF, SLF, etc.), grasp the tightness of the money market. Analysis of Fund Supply and Demand: Social Finance and M2: By analyzing the scale of social financing and money supply, we can understand the supply and demand of funds in the economy. Economic growth analysis: GDP system: Using expenditure and production methods, analyze the sources of economic growth and changes in industrial structure from the perspectives of consumption, investment, and net exports. Financial System Analysis: Fiscal revenue and expenditure: Pay attention to the general public budget and government fund budget, understand the structure of fiscal revenue, expenditure direction, and deficit situation. Specific domain analysis: Real estate investment system: Analyze the classification, inventory, sales, funding sources, and impact on GDP and employment of real estate investment. Manufacturing investment system: Focus on the transmission chain of inventory cycle, demand and production, and analyze it in combination with GDP expenditure method and production method. 3、 Cycle analysis Social financing cycle: divided into three stages: credit contraction, government countercyclical financing upward, and procyclical credit expansion, reflecting credit changes at the financial level. Inventory cycle: approximately 2-3 years per cycle, observing changes in inventory and sales to determine short-term fluctuations in the real economy. Jugra cycle (production capacity cycle): a cycle of about 8 to 10 years. It is analyzed by capacity utilization rate or fixed assets investment and other indicators. Kuznets cycle (intergenerational cycle): a cycle of about 20-25 years, mainly related to the dependency ratio of the population, and has a certain impact on fields such as real estate. 4、 Methodology of macroeconomic learning Establish a unified framework for macroeconomic indicators: sort out the main macroeconomic issues, construct a complete indicator system, and break the isolated relationship between knowledge points. Sorting out the economic crisis: Taking the timeline as the thread, objectively sorting out the entire process of the economic crisis, and combining historical experience to understand current economic phenomena. Read the viewpoints of various schools of thought: choose theories with complete systems, explanations in time and space, and adopted by rulers to sort them out and form your own evaluation. 5、 Further expansion and improvement Global perspective: Analyze the global three-level division of labor linkage framework (core countries, semi peripheral countries, and peripheral countries), combined with factors such as international trade and exchange rates, to understand the mutual influence of the global economy. Multidimensional integration: Attempt to integrate analysis frameworks from different fields together to construct a more comprehensive macroeconomic three-dimensional system, and visualize data linkage relationships through programming and other methods. Brothers, we must understand that establishing a macroeconomic analysis framework is a systematic project that requires continuous learning, accumulation, and practice, gradually improving our analytical system. To make one's stock market and cryptocurrency investments more manageable.