
Hasu⚡️🤖|Jun 03, 2025 07:55
Moving 1B for just 1 on Bitcoin looks amazing but it should also worry you for Bitcoin's future - at least a little bit.
The problem is, that tiny fee doesn't pay for transaction finality of the transfer. Neither does that entire block, which only had ~$3k in fees. Even the last hour of blocks total just ~$15k in fees.
Why does this matter? Finality comes from the economic cost to reverse mined blocks. Right now, 99%+ of Bitcoin’s economic security comes from new issuance, not fees. But issuance trends toward zero over time.
Without subsidies, you'd need around 600 blocks (~4 days) for today's finality.
Caveats:
- Maybe we currently "overpay" for security, leaving some room as issuance decreases.
- Finality isn't purely economic—social consensus helps too. But relying too much on social consensus leads back toward tradfi-like trust.
- For a 1B transaction, waiting days is manageable. For smaller transactions, it's not practical.
- Longer finality times can decrease demand, further extending finality times—a dangerous spiral.
Bitcoin's economic problem isn't getting much attention right now, and with Bitcoin L2s we are arguably in a better position than ever to solve it.
But it's still looming, and the Bitcoin community's inability to ship even simple updates like op_cat or op_ctv don't bode well for solving this 1000x bigger issue.
What I want to see over the next few years is a more functional community that proves it can either agree on things and move forward, or disagree and commit and move forward.
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