
Phyrex|Jun 02, 2025 15:52
After Mr. Wolf finished speaking, I really thought carefully about how to safely achieve an annualized return of 10% while holding $1.5 million. However, after thinking about it, it seems that I cannot find a stable solution that can guarantee 10% and 100% fund safety. Even a 10% return that is close to 100% safety is difficult for me to think of.
Generally speaking, a return of 10% or more is either leveraged or a high volatility target, and quantification is also one of the solutions. However, there is definitely a risk for the principal, so I think a different approach can be taken to achieve it:
Buy a 20-year US Treasury bond for $1.5 million, with a yield of barely 5%. If monetary easing has already entered in 2026, there is still a small opportunity to make a small profit in the secondary market for the 20-year bond. After one year, you will receive over $1.575 million.
If there is still no monetary easing in 2026, 2027 or 2028 should be almost the same, even if it means an economic recession is over
After buying the 20-year treasury bond, go through the mortgage loan, get $1.35 million, go to a third-party broker and buy one-year US bonds. At present, the yield of one-year US bonds is 4.13%, and the interest rate of one-year US bonds is 2.85% (SOFR+0.75%, SOFR=2.1%). If the SOFR remains unchanged, the one-year principal plus interest is $1.4075 million, and the interest rate of one-year US bonds is $38475, then the net income is nearly $20000.
The total revenue is over 1.6 million US dollars, which is barely 7% revenue. Of course, the biggest risk here is the increase in SOFR, and if it exceeds 3.4%, it will result in losses. With a slight increase in leverage, this portion of the earnings could potentially reach up to 10%.
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