Sina 🗝️⚡ 21st Capital
Sina 🗝️⚡ 21st Capital|May 29, 2025 18:24
Long-term longs & short-term shorts. A very brief note on selling Bitcoin-related options. 0- Most people ignore the power of options because some entry barriers exist and the math is daunting. But concept is simple at its core. Additionally, unique opportunities exist in Bitcoin-related tickers and a lot of vol and temporal mispricing that you can take advantage of. 1- Consider a portfolio of longs (spot or options in BTC, MSTR, etc.). You already believe in it and are long. Then you can very well outperform the asset, reduce your cost basis, or generate income selling options. Here is what i do. 2- When my analysis hints at slow future growth (majority of 2025H1) I begin selling calls. For example, when Bitcoin hit 100 I was short 120 calls. Or short MSTR after yield products and increased ATM. What short calls & When? 3- In the short run, people overestimate what the ticker can do (e.g., hype driven tickers). Volatility smile! And short-term shorts benefit from rapid time decay=> overpriced & rapidly decaying => this is what you want to sell. Which strike? more complication that is a discussion for another thread. For now a good place to start is to analyze the historical monthly returns and gauge the likelihood of ITM from there. But knowledge of the asset helps a lot too. If its Bitcoin, you can look at the quantile and cycle models to gauge what to expect from price in the future. 4- More people buy at the top (after they "saw" the performance) this is where the hype is at max. IV spike. You sell calls right when everyone is promising the moon! 5- In the long run people underestimate what the ticker can do (if a fundamentally strong one) so in corrections add to those. IV will also be at the floor in corrections to great ot add long term calls and leaps. 6- Do not sell calls when a "good" asset has crashed already. IV will be low, gains are small, and actual vol can rapidly go up => the result is you get small premium for a large risk of losing the up side. Summary: selling calls means you are selling the upside. But if you do it properly and sell only a "low chance upside" you can outperform the asset using this strategy.
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