Follow the main narrative thread of covering the chest and continue with the dog tail. Yesterday, all three major stock indexes in the United States closed up: the Dow Jones Index rose 1.78%, the Nasdaq Index rose 2.47%, and the S&P 500 Index rose 2.05%. The main reason for this rise is that the market believes that it has fully mastered Trump's behavioral logic, and the unknown risks are significantly reduced. American financial institutions even jokingly refer to this phenomenon as "TACO Tuesday", where "TACO" means "Trump Always Chickens Out". This metaphor vividly depicts Trump's policy style: it seems as tough as Mexican crispy pancakes, but it will break at a touch. The establishment of this' certainty 'injects confidence into the market and drives up the stock market. However, whether this situation is sustainable and how the market will enter the next stage are worth further exploration. We often say that Trump likes to "turn over Shaobing (Baked cake in griddle)". He likes to eat all over the world with one move, asking exorbitant prices first, but he often compromises in the end. After four months of observation, the market has figured out his trump card. This predictability reduces investors' uncertainty in the short term and becomes a driving force for the stock market to rise. This tactic has been widely recognized by the market. However, when this move becomes no longer fresh, a subtle shift in the market may be brewing. If Trump's behavior deviates from expectations in any "unexpected" way, such as suddenly sticking to a tough stance, the market may encounter sharp fluctuations. Therefore, investors need to remain vigilant while enjoying the current uptrend. With the gradual progress of negotiations between Trump and other countries, investors began to think that the impact of tariff war was turning over, and the pressure on inflation in the United States would not last for a long time. This optimistic sentiment further supports the performance of the stock market. However, this judgment still requires data verification. The PCE to be released this Friday will be a key indicator, and subsequent economic data will also provide more clues for inflation trends. If PCE data exceeds expectations, indicating rising inflationary pressures, the market's optimism may be shattered, and the stock market may face the risk of a pullback. Another positive news for the stock market's rise comes from the easing of the Japanese bond crisis. On Monday, the Japanese Ministry of Finance conducted a survey of market participants and hinted at the possibility of reducing the issuance scale of ultra long term bonds, which effectively lowered Japanese bond interest rates. However, there are two important preconditions behind this: first, Trump's softening attitude towards Japan's acquisition of American steel; The second is that Japan continues to purchase US Treasury bonds and negotiate with the United States in exchange for the relaxation of restrictions on the automotive industry. This compromise logic is clear: the Japanese automotive industry is the backbone of its economy, and only when the automotive industry is profitable can Japan maintain low interest bond issuance and have the capacity to purchase US bonds. And through these concessions, the United States is actually indirectly supporting its own economy. The high interdependence of this international policy not only alleviates the pressure on the Japanese bond market, but also provides external benefits for the US stock market. In general, the rise of the US stock market benefited from the market's grasp of Trump's behavioral logic, optimistic expectations of the impact of the tariff war, and the global market stability brought about by the easing of the Japanese bond crisis. However, this upward trend is not without hidden dangers. The predictability of Trump's policies may be broken by unexpected changes, the uncertainty of inflation data may shake market confidence, and the game of international economic policies is also full of variables. Investors should closely monitor this Friday's PCE data and subsequent international policy developments, and be prepared to cope with fluctuations while enjoying current returns. The market's logic of Trump's "crispy pancakes" may be able to support the rise for a period of time, but when the "fragmentation" really happens, the trend in the next stage may not be so mild.