🧐 Is it because we don't make money that we need a new mindset in the cryptocurrency industry? The period has not disappeared, it has just become more like quantum superposition—— I used to firmly believe in the 'four-year cycle'. Half reduction, bull bear, reincarnation, shanzhai season, and bargain hunting: These are the collective memories of early crypto believers. I found Haotian @ tmel0211's viewpoint very interesting after reading it this morning. It fits my logic perfectly and is a very important structural cognitive upgrade in the encryption circle during this cycle, Many of my friends and I have a similar feeling: are we too fixated on an outdated rhythm? This feeling makes us re-examine the market and our own position allocation, as well as the selling price of Bitcoin, and it is highly unlikely that we will refer to the previous bull bear cycle; This theory accurately reveals that a bull market does not have a single main line, but rather four replicas are simultaneously launched, each with its own rhythm and strategy. First of all, I would like to say that this is not a "denial of bull markets" argument, but a diversified narrative analysis framework that is more in line with the reality structure—— It's not that the bull market is not coming, but the logic, gameplay, and rotation methods of the bull market are becoming more complex and professional one ️⃣ Why do retail investors need to read this article carefully: 1) Breaking the linear bull bear thinking, proposing a "multi cycle parallel" perspective, breaking down the market from a large cycle into four concurrent local structures. 2) Each line has a clear "fund logic+market characteristics+investor adaptation type", which has strong reference value. 3) Suitable for the current market stage of "high volatility, low consensus, and fragmented narrative", it can help retail investors extract "context" from "chaos". two ️⃣ The First Copy | Bitcoin: Super Slow Bull Cycle The judgment of institution led pricing, chip structure restructuring, and reduced intraday volatility is very accurate and in line with the current trend of ETF+MSTR+macro fund allocation. Simply put, BTC is no longer a "retail speculation tool", but an "institutional asset allocation tool". MicroStrategy、ETF、 The capital structure dominated by Wall Street is flattening volatility and elongating cycles. What you see is a sideways trend, while institutions see opportunities for fixed investment. BTC is more like a technology stock, or it may follow a slow bull curve of over ten years. three ️⃣ Second instance | MEME: Attention Shortwave Cycle MEME is a barometer of market sentiment and never lacks a stage, but please note that it has evolved from a "grassroots playground" to a "professional arena". Retail investors who are happy with PVP without understanding this point will die tragically because they don't even know who their opponent is; MEME ≠ Everyone can earn, but it is "probability for ordinary people to play, winning rate for studios to play". Hot money plays a game of rotation on MEME: high-frequency, short-term, fast in and fast out. If you are a retail investor, it is recommended to shift from "following the trend" to "observing the emotional rhythm", not chasing high, and strive to get stuck in the "symbol recognition" before the outbreak. Do you want to eat meat? It's not about faith, but about pinpointing the 'emotional trigger point'. four ️⃣ Third Copy | Technical Narrative: Leap Forward Long Cycle The most interesting aspect of Haotian's article is that: Fundamentally pointing out the mismatch between the technology cycle and the emotional cycle is so damn accurate! In the future, we can see that the vast majority of technology projects are mistakenly killed in the 'Death Valley' stage. Projects with truly technical content (L2, ZK, AI Infra) never follow the rhythm of market sentiment. Their outbursts often double overnight after enduring the 'Valley of Death'. The returns of such projects are not based on popularity, but on time travel. Suitable for investors with patience and judgment. So what we need is not to lose money while waiting for the narrative, but to use position management and information advantages to gain jump value. five ️⃣ Fourth instance | Hotspot: Short wheel cycle AI Agent、DePIN、RWA、MemeFi； Various narratives take turns to appear, each with only a 1-3 month window. Haotian @ tmel0211 decomposes a six stage model: "Concept validation → Fund exploration → Public opinion amplification → FOMO entry → Valuation overdraft → Fund withdrawal". Do you want to profit from this model? The key is to enter the "concept validation" to "funding exploration" stage and exit during the peak of "FOMO entry". What I see are four words: Do not fall in love with battle, take your bag for safety! six ️⃣ Conclusion—— In the past, we relied on luck and buying to stay flat, but now that it has failed, we need to rely more on strategy. If you are still using the old logic of 'when the cow comes, get rich in the car' to make judgments, you may miss all the rhythm points. The truly suitable strategy is never to ask 'what market is currently', but to determine 'which cycle are you in now'. Taking the BTC long slope and thick snow route requires time and structural understanding; The path of the MEME emotional band requires rhythm and intuition; The road of technological leap in gambling is a mountain road that only lonely people can walk; The way to catch hot spots is physical work and Kwai games. Adapting to the market structure of "multi cycle parallelism" is the next maximum alpha. Which one do you choose? How long can we walk again? The market will answer us, but we need to ask ourselves first.