The formula is the percentage of the total market value of Altcoin minus the market value of USDT to the market value of BTC. The correlation with ETH exchange rate is very strong. Then compare the trend with the US dollar index, as shown in the figure. There is still hope, wait for the US dollar index to decline, pay attention ⚠️ The decline caused by loose monetary policy, that is, currency depreciation, is the most favorable for ETH and knockoff season. The other types of decline in the US dollar index are as follows: 1. The decline caused by weak US economic data (deteriorating fundamentals) Reason: Slowing GDP growth rate, rising unemployment rate, sluggish inflation, etc. in the United States. Characteristics: Investors are concerned about the growth prospects of the United States, and funds are flowing out of the US dollar. • Impact on risk assets: ⚠️ Neutral or slightly empty. The weakening of the economy is conducive to the expectation of interest rate cuts (positive for risk assets), but at the same time, it may also trigger risk aversion (negative). 2. Global economic recovery and decline caused by non US currency appreciation (relatively strong type) Reason: Economies in the Eurozone, Asia, and other regions are recovering faster than those in the United States, making non US assets more attractive. • Characteristics: The US dollar is relatively weak but not absolutely devalued. • Impact on risk assets: ✅ Lido. The increase in global risk appetite is conducive to the flow of funds to emerging markets, stocks, cryptocurrencies, and more. 3. External geopolitical or policy driven capital outflows (non systemic weakness) • Reasons: Policy uncertainty (such as government shutdown, fiscal deadlock), credit rating downgrade, geopolitical conflicts. • Characteristics: Investors are concerned about US dollar credit or policy risks. • Impact on risk assets: ⚠️ It depends on the situation. Sometimes it may trigger global safe haven (bearish risk assets), but it may also drive gold and cryptocurrencies up. And now the US dollar index is still at a high level, which is obviously not the most favorable (currency depreciation type). Now may be the eve of a decline caused by weak US economic data (previously, the threat of tariff policies from February to April was somewhat of a fundamental deterioration in the US dollar index, but the easing of tariffs corrected expectations) In addition, geopolitical or policy uncertainties such as fiscal deficits and a decline in global investment confidence have various impacts. It will take time for the US dollar index to decline due to loose monetary policy. But it won't be too far.