Just finished chatting with several industry experts, and everyone is discussing the same thing .. The theory of 'every four years' is completely outdated! If you are still living in Hold and getting rich suddenly, and still fantasizing about the "ten times or a hundred times chance of lying down and winning in a bull market", you may have been completely abandoned by the market. Why？ Because Smart Money has long discovered a secret: Crypto is no longer suitable for one set of gameplay, but for four completely different gameplay cycles running simultaneously 🧵： The rhythm, gameplay, and earning logic of each gameplay cycle are completely different. ——Bitcoin Super Cycle: Retail investors are out, ten-year slow bull market may become a certainty The 'script' of the traditional halving cycle? Completely ineffective! BTC has evolved from a "speculative target" to an "institutional asset allocation", and the funding volume and allocation logic of Wall Street, listed companies, and ETFs are completely different from the "bull bear switching" gameplay of retail investors. Where are the key changes? Retail investors are handing over their chips on a large scale, while institutional funds represented by MicroStrategy are crazily entering the market. The fundamental restructuring of this chip structure is redefining the price discovery mechanism and volatility characteristics of BTC. What are retail investors facing? The dual pressure of "time cost" and "opportunity cost". Institutions can withstand a holding period of 3-5 years to wait for the long-term value of BTC to be realized, but what about retail investors? Obviously, it is impossible to have such patience and financial planning strength. In my opinion, we are likely to see a BTC super slow bull market that lasts for more than ten years. The annualized return rate remains stable in the range of 20-30%, but the intraday volatility has significantly decreased, making it more like a steadily growing technology stock. What is the upper limit of BTC price? From the perspective of current retail investors, it is even difficult to predict. ——MEME attention shortwave cycle: from slum amusement park to professional leek harvesting farm The MEME long bull theory is actually valid. During the period of technical narrative performance gap, MEME narrative always matches the rhythm of emotions, funds, and attention to fill the "boring vacuum" in the market. What is the essence of MEME? It is a speculative carrier of "instant gratification". No need for a white paper, no need for technical validation, no need for a roadmap, just a symbol that can make people laugh or resonate is enough. From cat and dog culture to political MEME, from AI concept packaging to community IP incubation, MEME has evolved into a complete "emotional monetization" industry chain. Unfortunately, MEME's "short, flat, and fast" characteristics have made it a barometer of market sentiment and a reservoir of funds. When funds are abundant, MEME becomes the preferred testing ground for hot money; When funds are scarce, MEME becomes the last speculative safe haven. However, the reality is harsh, and the MEME market is evolving from a "grassroots carnival" to a "professional competition". The difficulty for ordinary retail investors to profit from this high-frequency rotation is increasing exponentially. The story of P's young master sitting idle and forging legends may become increasingly rare, and the entry of studios, scientists, and wealthy families will make this former "slum paradise" extremely crowded. ——Technological narrative leap forward long cycle: Death Valley bottom fishing, starting at 10 times in 3 years? Has the narrative of technology disappeared? It doesn't exist. Innovations that truly have technological barriers, such as Layer 2 scaling, ZK technology, AI infras, etc., require 2-3 years or even longer build times to see actual results. This type of project follows the Gartner Hype Cycle, rather than the emotional cycle of the capital market - there is a fundamental time mismatch between the two. The reason why technological narratives are criticized by the market is entirely due to overestimating the value of projects when they are still in the conceptual stage, and then underestimating the value during the "death valley" stage when the technology truly begins to land. This determines that the value release of technology projects exhibits a non-linear leap forward characteristic. For investors with patience and technical judgment, laying out truly valuable technology projects during the 'Death Valley' phase may be the best strategy to achieve excess returns. But the premise is that you have to be able to endure long waiting periods and market pains, as well as potential ridicule. ——Short cycle of innovation hotspots: 1-3 months window period, brewing the main rise wave and big narrative Before the formation of the main technical narrative, various small narratives rapidly rotate, from RWA to DePIN, from AI Agent to AI Infra (MCP+A2A), and each small hotspot may only have a window period of 1-3 months. This narrative fragmentation and high-frequency rotation reflect the dual constraints of scarce attention and rent-seeking efficiency in the current market. In fact, it is not difficult to find that a typical small narrative cycle follows a six stage model: "concept validation → fund exploration → public opinion amplification → FOMO entry → valuation overdraft → fund withdrawal". Do you want to profit from this model? The key is to enter the "concept validation" to "funding exploration" stage and exit during the peak of "FOMO entry". The competition between small narratives is essentially a zero sum game of attention resources. But there is a technical correlation and conceptual progression between narratives. For example, the MCP (Model Context Protocol) protocol and A2A (Agent to Agent) interaction standard in AI Infra are actually technical underlying reconstructions of AI Agent storytelling. If the subsequent narrative can continue the previous hot topic, form a systematic upgrade linkage, and truly precipitate a sustainable value loop in the linkage process. It is highly likely that a super narrative with a main wave level similar to DeFi Summer will emerge. From the current narrative perspective, the AI infrastructure level is most likely to achieve breakthroughs first. If the underlying technologies such as MCP protocol, A2A communication standard, distributed computing power, inference, and data networks can be organically integrated, there is indeed the potential to build a super narrative similar to "AI Summer". above. In general, understanding the essence of these four parallel gameplay cycles is necessary to find suitable strategies in their respective rhythms. Undoubtedly, a single "four-year cycle" thinking is no longer able to keep up with the complexity of the current market. Adapting to the new normal of "multiple gameplay cycles in parallel" may be the key to truly profiting in this bull market.