Scenarios, potential scale, and impact on the stability of the US financial system for stablecoins: Online and offline payments: Stablecoins can be used for fast, low-cost transactions, especially suitable for cross-border payments. Research shows that the market size may reach 300 billion to 400 billion US dollars by 2025, and if 1% of the global payment market is captured, it may increase to 1 trillion to 2 trillion US dollars in the long run. Daily business of banks: Banks can use stablecoins for transaction settlement or reserve, with a potential increase in size of $200 billion to $500 billion, depending on the adoption rate. Securities on Chain: Traditional securities such as stocks and bonds can be put on chain, and stablecoins can serve as a trading medium. If 1% of the global securities market were to be put on chain, the trading volume could reach $1 trillion to $5 trillion. RWA (Real World Assets): Real estate, art and other assets can be put on the chain, and stablecoins can facilitate transactions. If 1% of the global real estate market is put on the chain, the transaction volume may exceed $300 billion Among the reserve assets of stablecoins, US bonds account for a significant proportion. For example, Tether's total assets as of March 31, 2025 were $149.275 billion, of which US Treasury exposure was nearly $120 billion, accounting for approximately 80%. Circle's USDC is also supported by cash and short-term US Treasury bonds, with specific ratios changing over time. Current status: The total capital of the stablecoin market is approximately $200 billion to $230 billion, and the estimated holdings of US Treasury bonds are $150 billion to $180 billion. Potential size: If the market grows to $400 billion by 2025, assuming 70-80% of reserves are in US Treasury bonds, the total holdings may increase to $210 billion to $320 billion. In the long run, if stablecoins become the main tool for global trading, the holdings of US bonds may reach trillions of dollars. As of May 2025, the total amount of US treasury bond bonds is about 34.3 trillion US dollars, including: Domestically holds approximately $26.4 trillion (77%). International holdings amount to approximately 7.9 trillion US dollars (23%). The current stablecoin market size is approximately $200 billion to $230 billion, with holdings of approximately $150 billion to $180 billion in US Treasury bonds, accounting for 0.44% to 0.52% of the total US Treasury bonds. If the stablecoin market grows to $400 billion by 2025, assuming 80% of the reserves are US Treasury bonds, the holding amount can reach $320 billion, accounting for approximately 0.93% of the total US Treasury bonds. In the long term (2030), if the market reaches trillions of dollars, the digestion ratio may rise to 5% to 10%, depending on the growth rate and reserve composition. Main countries' holdings of US Treasury bonds (March 2025 data): Japan: $1.1 trillion (largest holder). China: Approximately 800 billion US dollars. • UK: Approximately $700 billion. South Korea: Approximately 130 billion US dollars. Germany: Approximately $110 billion. Stablecoin issuers hold approximately $150 billion to $180 billion in US Treasury bonds, surpassing Germany ($110 billion) and ranking as the 19th largest holder, close to South Korea. If the market size reaches $1 trillion (expected by 2028), it will surpass Japan and become one of the largest holders. The impact on the financial security of the US government Positive impact: • Increased demand: Stablecoins increase demand for US Treasury bonds, reduce financing costs, and alleviate $34.3 trillion in debt pressure. It is expected that by 2030, the proportion of stablecoin holdings in US Treasury bonds will reach over 20%. The dominance of the US dollar: stablecoins pegged to the US dollar (accounting for 99.8%) strengthen the global position of the US dollar and consolidate financial hegemony. • Innovation promotion: The GENIUS and STABLE acts promoted by the Trump government provide regulatory clarity, promote financial innovation, and attract capital inflows. • Potential risks: • Concentration risk: stablecoin issuers (such as Tether) becoming major holders may trigger market volatility due to single entity risks (such as opaque reserves). Regulatory loopholes: If there is insufficient regulation, the collapse of the stablecoin market may affect the stability of the US Treasury market. • Conflict of interest: The Trump family's involvement in stable currencies (such as USD 1) caused corruption concerns, which may shake trust and affect the credibility of the policy. Financial stability: Large scale stablecoins may interfere with the transmission of monetary policy and increase systemic risks. Overall, stablecoins will enhance the demand for US bonds and the position of the US dollar in the short term, but long-term financial security depends on strict regulation and market transparency.