
qinbafrank|May 23, 2025 11:08
Recently, many friends have also observed this phenomenon: two weeks ago, we talked about the threshold (or threshold) of 4.6% for the 10-year US Treasury yield. The higher the threshold, the greater the market pressure, and below this threshold, the market still has support. Recently, US10y has been hit several times on the 4.6% edge. @111_114390 mentioned here today: https://(x.com)/111_114390/status/1925842616379126157? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A "The US Treasury should have a floor mechanism in place, and as soon as the 10Y yield reaches 4.6%, it will automatically execute a buy, perhaps with a threshold of 4.6% set by Besant or the Federal Reserve for 10Y. Personally, I also agree that Benson comes from Wall Street, and it is very possible for a few big shots or institutions to secretly intervene.
We need to pay attention to the trend of US10Y in the future. If 4.6% fails to hold up and break through, we need to be cautious. If it goes up to 5%, it may be the lifeline of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department. By then, the market may have been hit, and Powell and Besant are estimated to work together to rescue the market.
The last time US10y reached 5% was in mid to late October 2023, when Yellen proposed a repurchase plan and Powell hinted at the expectation of interest rate cuts. What impressed me even more was Bill Ackermann's public announcement that he had liquidated his short position in long-term US bonds, and then US bond yields turned around and continued to decline.
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