
qinbafrank|May 21, 2025 17:40
At night, the auction of 20-year US Treasury bonds scared the market: the bid multiple was lower than the previous value, and the allocation percentage of the winning interest rate soared, which meant that the demand for treasury bond was weak. The auction data shows that US bond yields have skyrocketed, and the US stock and cryptocurrency markets have started to plummet.
I have previously discussed here: Normally, there is a threshold of around 4.6% for the continuous increase of USD10Y (based on empirical data, looking at market conditions from September to October 2023 and December to January 2025). An impact of over 4.6% on the market is very direct, and the higher the increase, the greater the market pressure.
Just ten years ago, the yield of US Treasury bonds reached 4.59%, and we need to closely monitor it. If it breaks through 4.6% and continues to rise, market pressure will become apparent
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