QCP Capital: Japan's debt crisis brewing, Bitcoin faces liquidity test at high levels

QCP Capital, a Singapore crypto investment institution, reported that the yield of Japan's 30-year treasury bond bonds exceeded 3%, a record high, which triggered a chain reaction in the global financial market. The proportion of Japanese government debt to GDP has reached 234%, and recent remarks by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba have intensified market concerns about fiscal sustainability. Although the Japanese yen exchange rate has traditionally been more affected by short-term interest rate differentials, if the bond market continues to sell, it may trigger capital inflows and push up the short-term strength of the yen. The yield of the 30-year treasury bond bond of the United States rose to above 5% synchronously, and investors worried about the debt prospect after the Trump government's US $3.8 trillion fiscal plan was blocked. Against the backdrop of increasing macro pressure, Bitcoin's attempt to break through $108000 on the same day was unsuccessful. Analysis shows that the current buying trend mainly comes from strategic investors and continuous purchases by listed company Metaplanet. However, the market is concerned that if institutional purchasing momentum weakens or triggers profit taking. The report points out that despite facing multiple pressures such as soaring bond yields, tariff escalation, and the risk of stagflation in the third and fourth quarters of the United States, Bitcoin has shown strong resistance to decline over the past month. If the price breaks through the previous high, it may trigger retail FOMO sentiment to boost a new round of upward trend. We need to closely monitor the transmission effect of Japanese bond market volatility on global risk assets.