
Rocky|May 19, 2025 11:11
Calm down and listen to the pulse of the market! 🧐
Pay attention to data from the global bond market 📊, At present, the 10-year interest rate in the United States is 4.54%, and the 30-year interest rate has soared to 5.02%. This is very bad data 📊, Including Japan, Europe and other major developed countries, the interest rate of 10-year treasury bond is also soaring. Maybe you don't know what this means?
🚨 Bond yields have skyrocketed. Not because of inflation, nor because of the Federal Reserve. But it is the beginning of the collapse of global investment institutions' trust in the US financial system, which is consistent with Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating a few days ago. Although the market has shown strong resilience, data shows that institutional investors are still continuously reducing their holdings of US stocks!
In my student years, financial advisors would always emphasize in class that US bonds are the cornerstone of global finance, which is a basic financial knowledge that any asset pricing is often linked to!
·Banks consider US Treasury bonds as safe capital
·Hedge funds use US bonds as collateral
·Foreign central banks hold assets worth trillions of dollars
·Mortgage loan interest rates, credit cards, and commercial loans are priced based on this
Therefore, when the yield of the 10-year US treasury bond bond soared, all other bad things would follow, especially the liquidity crisis.
If I remember correctly, last month hedge funds using US Treasury bonds as collateral were required to replenish margin, including insurance in Japan and Taiwan.
Why? Because when bond prices fall (yields rise), the value of collateral also decreases. Under this chain reaction, these institutions are forced to sell more US bonds. This leads to further price declines and bond yields rising, ultimately forming a vicious cycle.
This is also the essence that led to the 2008 financial crisis. If you still remember, based on this mechanism: collateral depreciation → forced selling → liquidity shortage, it ultimately triggered the first landmine, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers! This is why we are not optimistic about the US stock market at the moment. In the short term, BTC may be affected by this, but in the long run, there is no need to worry!
The loosening of the US dollar credit system is undoubtedly a long-term positive for BTC, especially with the recent disclosure of data from the 13th quarter, where Goldman Sachs became the single largest institutional holder of BTC ETFs. This is a typical signal, and now it is undoubtedly a time grab. We have gone from gold US dollar bound credit, to oil US dollar bound credit, to future BTC US dollar bound credit. The time difference, whether the US dollar credit falls faster or the Bitcoin US dollar is bound faster, will be answered by time. Therefore, BTC with a market value of 1 million US dollars and a market value of 21 trillion US dollars, compared to the 35 trillion US dollar debt, from the perspective of feasibility, there is basically no problem!
By forcing us to talk so much, it is undoubtedly a reminder to everyone that in the fishtail market, controlling our positions, having a good meal is not too late, and opportunities are always there. However, many times, we lack patience and want to make any money, which can easily lead to picking up sesame seeds and losing watermelons. Why not think about the big cycle, think about the big picture, maybe we can dispel the clouds and see the essence!
👇 A few days ago, at an altitude of 4333 meters, drinking coffee and pizza 🍕, This is the highest altitude experience in life. Experience life more and think more diversely!
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