Regarding whether the US economy is in crisis under the prosperity of the US stock market, in addition to the analysis of various economic observers, the well-known rating agency Moody's also expressed its opinion by downgrading its rating after the US stock market closed yesterday. At this point, the United States has gathered the Dragon Ball, which has been downgraded by the three major rating agencies, and can probably summon the dragon of economic crisis. The reason for this downward adjustment is due to factors such as the continuous rise of US Treasury bonds, the expansion of fiscal deficits, and the increase in interest expenses. Simply put, it means having no money, and being poor is a sin. The most subtle linkage event regarding the rating downgrade is that the recently talked about "Beautiful Bill" has not been passed. The reason for not passing is actually quite absurd. Four hardline Republican representatives - Congressman Chip Roy, Ralph Norman, Josh Brecheen, and Andrew Clyde - defected to the Democratic camp and voted against the Republican proposal. At first glance, students who are not familiar with the political ecology of the United States in recent years may find it strange that the Republican Party is fighting itself, but in fact, this has happened quite a few times. Essentially, it is a further deepening of the party struggle in the United States, which means that there are not only Democratic and Republican party struggles, but also different small group interests within the two parties. For example, the four people who voted against this time are representatives of hardliners within the Republican Party, belonging to the "Freedom Core Group", often at odds with the mainstream views within the party on issues such as fiscal policy and government role. Their strong conservative stance has brought them closer to ideological purity on certain issues, rather than blindly following party lines. Therefore, they have significant differences with the Republican leadership on how to balance tax reform, spending cuts, and deficit control. Although Emperor Chuan claims to have three powers in one, in fact, just like how he was able to control the MAGA faction to threaten the Republican establishment and not pass the bill when he was in opposition, there are now small groups who sing the opposite tune for their own interests or higher demands. This disagreement not only leads to the rejection of the bill, but may also have far-reaching implications for the Republican Party's future legislative agenda. Of course, this "beauty bill" will be passed eventually, but only if Trump pays the corresponding ransom price. What worries the market the most is whether it will replicate the scene of the US stock market plummeting after S&P downgraded its rating in 2011. My opinion is that it won't happen in the short term (such as next week). Although I have been calling for a crisis and even saying that we will increase shipments for some time, no one can say for sure when this structural economic crisis will break out. Even Mr. Chuanzi and Mr. Bao are waiting. For example, this will come out to adjust the decision-making framework of the Federal Reserve and push it all the way to the end of August or early September. The arrival of the Minsky moment is unpredictable, like a pile of sand collapsing. Everyone knows it will collapse, but no one knows exactly when it will collapse. Let's compare the situation after the first two downgrades, In 2011, after S&P downgraded the credit rating of the United States, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 634.76 points (about 5.55%) on August 8, and the S&P 500 index fell more than 7% that day. The 10-year US Treasury yield surged by 16 basis points, and the 2-year US Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points. When Fitch downgraded on August 1, 2023, the market reaction was relatively mild, stock index futures fell slightly, treasury bond bond yields rose, and the recovery was relatively fast. The final comprehensive impact of this downward adjustment should be smaller than that of 2011 and higher than that of 2023, between the first two. 2011 was the first year of decline, and the market was unprepared. Currently, as the third market, it is already exhausted. At present, VIX has also confirmed this judgment. In 2011, VIX directly reached 48, while currently it is only 17. And all of this may also be what the US government or Federal Reserve wants, to hedge expectations through modified data, distorted market interpretations, and finally find a way to inject the needle without crying when the market has not reacted.