qinbafrank
qinbafrank|May 15, 2025 13:32
In April, the year-on-year increase in PPI in the United States was 2.4%, lower than expected, with a month on month decrease of -0.4%. However, the weak consumption of 0.1% month on month is actually quite weak. As a whole, it can be understood that in order to purchase a large number of goods before Trump's tariff policy takes effect, consumers have overdrawn their purchasing power and are tightening their spending. The further weakening of the price index from producers to wholesalers is also a manifestation of this tightening of consumption. In early March, we talked about concerns in the market about the rebound of inflation and the direct impact of tariffs on commodity inflation. However, the significant weakening of consumer confidence index and small and medium-sized enterprise confidence index from February to April will actually lead to a tightening of consumption and a weakening of the service industry today. The rebound in commodity inflation is likely to be offset by the weakening of energy and service sector inflation, and it is now becoming a possibility. This is also the possible turning point that we discussed this morning regarding the reversal of the upward trend in US bond yields over the past decade.
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