
DC大于C|May 15, 2025 10:27
Borrowing Guilin Brother's building to continue discussing BTC's "mid-term" high short strategy.
Shouting empty will definitely be criticized, but please take a look at this article first before saying: (Can BTC hit a new high or higher: https://(x.com)/DL-W59/status/192284834641680527)
We talked about short-term (a few days ago) multi air force strategies two days ago. You can flip through it. The 'mid-term' high short strategy we are discussing now is planned for more than ten days per week.
Directly enter the main text:
Currently, regardless of the macro sentiment, BTC's on chain data is still on an upward and fluctuating trend, but the upward momentum is weak and lacks the support of "new stories" to accelerate capital entry. Continuing to rise and reach new highs is actually difficult.
So now it belongs to the high-level oscillation stage, and the real decline stage has not yet arrived. Don't wait for the decline stage to come true, wait for the decline stage to come and then go empty. You can only have some soup.
But opening short at the current price of around 102000 is possible, but it's not that cost-effective. I'll wait for another night in the US stock time zone today, Thursday. Anyway, the purpose is to find a price of around 103500 or above to open short. You can choose to split the position and place an order at a lower multiple. It depends on personal confidence.
Some friends asked, what should we do if we choose the wrong direction? Conservatively, we stop at 106500 and aggressively set the price at 120000.
Don't be so delusional that BTC will reach 150000 immediately. Do you know how much capital is needed to drive the market to 150000? What emotions and news can bring such a large amount of funds.
Trump is no use calling for a single stock market now. The tariff has gradually desensitized, and the yield of 10-year US bonds has reached 4.5 again. This is not good news for the risk market.
Even if there is a real interest rate cut in June, it will only be expected in early June. Moreover, CME data shows that the probability of a rate cut in June is less than 15%. So I said go take a look at the link at the beginning of the article.
There must be some friends asking, 'Is there really any bearish trend right now?'? The weekend is approaching, with no positive news and low liquidity, prices may decline quickly. This is our previous experience.
This mid-term short position is about patience. How to choose the right direction for a short order? If it falls below 100700.
So, it's about patience.
Especially in terms of position management. It depends on personal preference. The above is only my personal opinion. If you do not like it, please do not criticize. Feel free to communicate and do not use it as investment advice. Thank you
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