Against the backdrop of "recession trading" recovery, 10Y quietly returned to 4.5%, DXY returned to 100, and economic growth expectations have recovered. The next focus of the game is on inflation and employment data - whether Q3 can trigger a precautionary interest rate cut (i.e. bullish ETH&altcoins) When 10Y=4.5%, will the impact of subsequent tariffs on the data for June and July be a rebound in inflation or a reflection of weakened demand? The former will trigger further inflationary trading to enter a state of oscillation or rebound after an upward trend, while the latter will trigger a trend of precautionary interest rate cuts. At this position, there is significant market divergence, and I personally would not choose to bet on a rightward trend with a large position in a combination of 10Y=4.5%&DXY=100. It feels like there is a fifty fifty chance of throwing a coin. On a microscopic level, the bullish trend seems to continue for some time, and ETH has also reached the previously mentioned range of 2700-2800. However, after reaching this range, my subsequent action is to lay out short positions. If the data supports the development towards a precautionary interest rate cut, the strategy may choose to stop loss, and ETH should continue to rebound to 3000+.