Ethereum is fighting a war on three fronts and not really winning any of them currently - ETH is not a better SoV commodity money than BTC (fight me) - Ethereum L1 execution layer is not more scalable than Solana or alt L1s - Ethereum blobspace is not more scalable than Celestia or alt DA There is an argument to be made that Ethereum only needs to be semi-competitive on each of these to win based on network effects alone (sum greater than its parts), plausible While one can also argue it’s a chase three rabbits, catch none situation, a lack of definitive focus to be exceptional at any one thing As an ETH holder, I obviously want Ethereum to win, but at a certain point you have to recognize the landscape is shifting, the success of a platform doesn’t mean you automatically win as a SoV asset My thesis in general is that the entire L1 coin category is massively overvalued as: - BTC continues to domains as the primary SoV commodity money reverse asset - Apps capture more their own revenue via ASS + OEV recapture + app chains - Gas tokens are abstracted away and stablecoins become the dominant MoE - Most chains generate a modest but not particularly exceptional revenue, and it’s a power law distribution - Chain-abstraction infra layers blur the lines between chains and users follow the apps which follow the liquidity Out of every non-BTC L1 coin, ETH has the best bet to overcome these headwinds, but it’s in no way guaranteed Couldn’t tell you where ETH goes in the short / medium term, probably does well as sentiment reverses, but it does have long term challenges to overcome